A solar and battery storage development operated by Entergy in Searcy, Arkansas. The growth of solar energy is expected to help some parts of the country meet electricity demand this summer. (Robert Zullo/States Newsroom)
With some parts of the country already experiencing heat waves, the organization responsible for setting reliability standards for the U.S. power grid is warning that a scorching summer could lead to a shortage of energy generation in some regions.
The warning comes as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there is a 99% chance that 2024 will be among the five warmest years on record, and a 55% chance that it will be the warmest years on record.
Overall, the North American Electric Reliability Corp.’s analysis outlined. (NERC), however, a rosier picture than last year’s report, partly due to the strong development of solar energy.
The country has enough energy to meet normal peak demand, called “load” in the electricity industry, thanks in large part to 25 gigawatts of new solar capacity – at full capacity, that’s about the equivalent of the maximum output of 25 large fossil or nuclear power plants. (The number of homes that can be powered by one gigawatt of solar energy can vary widely from country to country). But the new panels have helped shift some areas from what NERC calls “increased risk” of power shortages in last year’s analysis to “normal risk” this year.
“Adding resources will provide the capacity needed to keep up with rising peak demand in most areas,” Mark Olson, the organization’s manager of reliability assessments, told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Thursday. New energy transfer agreements, growth in demand response programs, which incentivize customers to reduce energy use during times of grid stress, and delayed decommissioning of power plants “are also contributing to an overall improved resource outlook for next summer,” NERC says.
A solar wave
A separate presentation from FERC staff said solar will account for 10% of total national electricity generation capacity by the end of this summer, with natural gas supplying 42%, coal 14% and wind 13%.
Solar energy is growing rapidly across the country, with the U.S. reaching a total of five million solar installations (most of them residential), according to the Solar Energy Industries Association. Reaching that milestone took 50 years, but the industry group expects reaching 10 million solar installations will take just six years. Solar energy for the first time accounted for more than half of new electricity generation capacity added in 2023, the group noted.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects a “record addition” of new utility-scale solar this year, with about 36.4 gigawatts expected to be installed. More than half of that new capacity is planned for Texas, California and Florida. The Gemini facility is expected to become operational this year near Las Vegas, with a planned solar capacity of nearly 700 megawatts and battery storage capacity of up to 380 megawatts. to become the largest solar energy project in the country.
Battery storage is also growing rapidly; more than 14 gigawatts are expected to be added this year, according to the EIA. Batteries are a good complement to solar power generation because peak solar production generally does not match peak grid demand, which occurs later in the day. Batteries allow excess solar energy to be stored when needed.
But a changing power mix also brings new challenges and risks, NERC warned.
In his presentation to FERC, Olson said that while the overall outlook for summer electric reliability has improved, some regions face what he described as increasing risks during extreme weather.
“Shortages may arise if demand is high and solar, wind or hydropower output is low,” he said.
These regions include parts of the Midwest and South in the network area operated by the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, New England, Texas, much of the Southwest and California. However, grid operators are becoming increasingly adept at planning and managing electricity networks with large amounts of intermittent resources.
“It’s refreshing to finally get recognition that renewables can contribute to reliability,” said Simon Mahan, executive director of the Southern Renewable Energy Association.
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Shifting seasons and climate change
While most of the country has historically experienced a ‘summer peak’, meaning regions reach their highest demand for electricity during the summer months, some areas are increasingly seeing peak demand in the winter, a trend moving towards expected to continue due to the electrification of heating. other decarbonization policies and more extreme, prolonged cold weather events. The majority of recent power grid outages have occurred during severe winter weather, such as winter storm Elliott in 2022, which caused power outages in several southern states, and Uri in 2021, which caused a catastrophic collapse of the power grid in Texas, which is estimated caused a power outage. 246 deaths.
But summer heat still poses risks, NERC says, contributing to both high demand and power plant outages, such as natural gas plants.
“Last summer brought record temperatures, prolonged heat waves and wildfires to large parts of North America,” the organization said. And while there were few energy emergency alerts and no interruptions in electricity supply due to insufficient energy sources, grid operators “faced significant challenges and used procedures and protocols to obtain all available resources, manage system demand and ensuring that energy is delivered around the world. transmission network to meet system demand.”
Utilities and state and local officials in many areas “also used mechanisms and public appeals to reduce customer demand during periods of strained supply,” NERC added.
Christy Walsh, a senior attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council’s Sustainable FERC Project, said the reliability reports show how climate change is central to the pressures facing the electric grid.
“And it must also be central to our solutions,” she said in a statement to States Newsroom. “Earlier and more intense hurricanes caused by rising sea temperatures are a new and notable concern, underscoring the need for larger-scale transmission and connections between regions. Most of the new additions have been wind, solar and storage, and especially last summer we saw how crucial these resources can be during extreme heat. We need to ensure we have an electricity grid that can withstand the weather and move resources in times of stress.”
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