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New York Red Bulls advance to the MLS Cup, making the arbitrariness of these playoffs clear

The New York Red Bulls defeated Orlando City on Saturday in the Eastern Conference and will play for the title next weekend. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

The New York Red Bulls played twenty soccer games between June 2 and the end of the MLS regular season; they won three, including two against lowly Toronto.

They started the 2024 Major League Soccer campaign relatively strong, but by the end of the 34 matches they had recorded just 11 wins.

For eight months they embodied mediocrity. They entered the MLS playoffs as the Eastern Conference’s No. 7 seed, with title odds of +5800, more as beneficiaries of the bloated format than as deserving contenders.

And yet here they are, 90 minutes away from an MLS title.

The Red Bulls defeated Orlando City 1-0 on Saturday night to advance to the MLS Cup, where they will meet the Seattle Sounders or Los Angeles Galaxy next weekend.

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They survived a few scares and stunned Orlando with a set piece early in the second half. John Tolkin’s delivery was fantastic. Andrés Reyes’ header was brave. On the day itself they were deserved winners.

But their mere presence in the conference finals also highlighted the arbitrariness of the MLS playoffs — an 18-team, stop-start, partially single-elimination competition to determine a competition defined by parity.

After two consecutive MLS Cups featuring relative heavyweights, the 2024 playoffs have created chaos. The Red Bulls defeated the vaunted Columbus Crew in Round 1, first on the road and then in Game 2 at home on penalties. Atlanta, meanwhile, with all ten wins in the regular season, upset top-seeded Inter Miami. FC Cincinnati also fell on penalties to sixth-placed NYCFC.

The Red Bulls then defeated NYCFC in the quarterfinals. They topped Orlando on Saturday with a scrappy, solid performance in the semifinals. They’ve beaten more teams in the playoffs than they have in over four months, and next Saturday (4 p.m. ET, Fox) they need just one more to win the club’s first MLS Cup championship.

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