It has never been more important for an NFL team to secure the No. 1 seed in the conference. The two No. 1s are the only teams to get a first-round bye in the playoffs, while every other playoff team must compete to make it to the next week.
An interesting situation is currently emerging on top of the NFC. Three teams – the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings – could end the season with identical records. Currently, all three of these teams are 12-2 with three games remaining. If they all win the same number of games over the next three weeks, how will the NFL determine who gets the bye?
First, let’s take a look at the league’s tiebreaker procedures.
How the NFL is cutting ties
The NFL has different criteria for severing ties. It starts with the teams’ records in matches against each other and continues in different scenarios. If the tie is still not broken after the penultimate category, the final step is a toss.
Here are the steps to break a tie in the NFL between teams from different divisions (division ties are determined with the additional division record step between steps 1 and 2):
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Head-to-head (best win-lost-draw percentage in inter-club matches).
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Best win-lost-draw percentage in matches played in the conference.
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Best won-lost-draw percentage in regular games, at least four.
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Strength of victory in all games.
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Strength of schedule in all matches.
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Best combined rankings among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
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Best combined rankings of all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
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Best net points in conference games.
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Best net points in all games.
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Best net touchdowns in all games.
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Coin toss
The NFC North factor
The Lions defeated the Vikings 31-29 in their first meeting of the season on Oct. 20, so they have the edge going into the teams’ second game of Week 18 on Jan. 5. The Vikings have that one division loss, while the Lions Lions have zero, but both teams also play one other division game: the Lions play the Bears in Week 16 and the Vikings play the Packers in Week 17. It could very likely all be on that final could come down. game.
If the season ended today…
The tiebreaker would be between the Lions and Eagles. Since they didn’t play each other this season and aren’t in the same division, we’ll go to the conference record. As of December 17, the Eagles have two conference losses (Week 2 against the Atlanta Falcons, Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), while the Lions have one conference loss (Week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), if their Week 15 loss was to the Buffalo Bills of AFC North.
If the season were to end now, these conference losses would determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. And the Lions would own the tiebreaker over the Eagles and Vikings, making them the No. 1 seed.
Looking ahead, if the Lions win, they’ll be No. 1. If both the Eagles and Vikings win, the Vikings would likely own the tiebreaker due to the power of the win, according to the Detroit Free Press.
