Typically, an NFL team’s record against the spread trends goes back to .500 over the course of a season. Oddsmakers don’t let bettors keep winning by betting on the best teams or against the worst teams, and adjust the odds accordingly. The point spread is the great equalizer.
But one team is losing to gamblers almost every week this season. There is only one team in the NFL with just one win against the spread all season. According to Action Network, the Tennessee Titans are 1-9 against the spread this season. That’s even worse than Tennessee’s poor 2-8 overall record. Every other team has covered the spread at least twice. It’s not like there was a lot of confidence in the Titans before the season. But they have failed to meet even those low expectations.
Here’s a look at Week 12 of the NFL season from a betting perspective, with odds from BetMGM:
Thursday night: a disappointment for Steelers?
The Pittsburgh Steelers are clearly a better team than the Cleveland Browns. But it’s a tough spot for the Steelers on Thursday night.
The Steelers are on their way to an upset after a blowout win Sunday over the Baltimore Ravens. That narrow victory kept Pittsburgh in first place of the AFC North. Now they have to step up in a short week for a game against a bad Browns team. And if there’s one matchup the Browns are rooting for, it’s the Steelers. Remember, the Browns beat the Ravens in Week 8. Against another elite division rival, in prime time and at home, we should get the best out of the Browns. Whatever that’s worth. The Browns are a 3.5-point underdog.
Interesting underdog: Can the Colts pull off a big upset?
The Detroit Lions look tough to beat. They are coming off a 52-6 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars and are clearly the best team in football.
But 7.5 points is a lot for the Indianapolis Colts, who looked a lot better last week when Anthony Richardson returned to the lineup. They won at the New York Jets, which doesn’t count as a quality win this season, but Richardson looked a lot better. That gives the Colts hope. It will be difficult for Indianapolis to keep up with Detroit, which has scored 52 points twice this season. But Colts +7.5 still seems like a big number.
Another underdog, 49ers may not have many chances left
The San Francisco 49ers are 5-5. They’re not out of the playoff race yet, but they have a tough road to get there. The 49ers’ schedule for the rest of the trip isn’t easy, and the Green Bay Packers face a big challenge on Sunday. The Packers are 7-3 and a 2-point favorite vs. San Francisco.
The fact that the spread is under a field goal for a road team at the 7-3 Packers is a sign that the 49ers still get some respect in the gambling community. It’s also an indication that oddsmakers understand that the 49ers are the most desperate team. It’s not quite a must-win game for San Francisco, but it’s close.
Player Prop of the Week: Bo Nix passing yards
Bo Nix is ​​on a roll. The Denver Broncos rookie quarterback has averaged 257.3 passing yards over the past four games, and he has thrown for at least 215 yards in each of those games. He improves every week. This week the Broncos face the Las Vegas Raiders, who have a below-average pass defense. They rank 26th in EPA (expected points added) allowed per dropback and 28th in success rate allowed per dropback, via RBSDM.com. Nix’s total is 215.5. That doesn’t give Nix enough credit for the role he played.
Watching Futures: A Major NFC West Showdown
The 49ers were the heavy favorites to win the NFC West. Maybe they’ll get there, but it’s a four-team race with seven weeks to go. The Seattle Seahawks got back into the race with a win at the 49ers last week. They are 5-5 and still trailing the 6-4 Arizona Cardinals, but still have both games remaining against Arizona.
The first meeting is in Seattle and the Seahawks are one-point underdogs. It’s a huge game in the race. The Cardinals are -120 favorites to win the NFC West. The Seahawks are all the way back at +550 to win the division. Those odds will look very different if Seattle wins at home on Sunday.
Sunday night: Eagles get a good test
The Philadelphia Eagles have entered the circle of trust this season. They are one of the few teams you can easily imagine winning a Super Bowl. The offense is filled with stars and the defense has come a long way in a short time.
But Sunday night won’t be easy. The Los Angeles Rams, a three-point underdog, are well-coached and quite healthy. They were pretty healthy when they laid an egg against the Dolphins on Monday night a few weeks ago, but they rebounded nicely last week with a win in New England. If the Eagles can get the win and cover in Los Angeles, it will solidify that they are the only serious challenger to the Detroit Lions in the NFC.
Monday evening: Harbowl!
Monday night’s game features two of the five or so best coaches in the NFL. They just happened to grow up in the same house.
John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens will take on Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers. If the season ended today, both teams would be in the playoffs. Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL after nine seasons at the University of Michigan, and he’s had immediate success. The 7-3 Chargers have a better record than the 7-4 Ravens, but the Ravens are a three-point road favorite. There’s a lot of respect for Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and a talented Ravens team, but don’t sleep on the Chargers. They are a very good team.
