As the NFL regular season nears its end, there is a wide chasm between the best teams in the league and those praying that the offseason is already here.
Many teams are either severely devoid of talent, beaten down by injuries, or both. That’s why the favorites did well in Week 15. The favorites were 11-5 against the spread. Over the last three weeks of the season, it will be difficult to take down some of the big underdogs who look like they have it all wrapped up already.
Here’s a look at Week 16 of the NFL season from a betting perspective, with all the odds from BetMGM:
Thursday night: Chargers are favored over Broncos
The point spread for Thursday night’s game refuses to yield to the Los Angeles Chargers -3 against the Denver Broncos, which is telling. The Chargers are favorites by 2.5 points. NFL bettors know that 3 is a key number, and as of Thursday morning, oddsmakers had declined to give the Broncos a full field goal. A line of Chargers -2.5 seems to want to entice bettors to take Los Angeles.
That could be because of the past week. The Broncos did not play well, but defeated the Colts 31-13. Meanwhile, the Chargers were defeated 40-17 at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chargers won the first meeting between the teams, but a sweep will be difficult.
We have reached the point in the season where there are Saturday games. We will have the four teams face each other on Christmas Day so that they all have the same amount of rest when they all play on Wednesday. In the first game, the Houston Texans play at the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes’ status was in doubt during the week, but with full practices on Tuesday and Wednesday, it appears he will play. That’s why the Chiefs are favorites by 3.5 points. The Chiefs have had trouble covering the spreads this season, but they did cover against the Browns last Sunday.
The second match could ultimately play the decisive role for AFC North. The Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers and are a fairly strong favorite by 6.5 points. Pittsburgh would clinch the division with a win, while the Ravens would move back into a tie for first place if they win. The Steelers won the first game 18–16, their eighth victory in nine tries over Baltimore. For as one-sided as the rivalry is and as close Ravens-Steelers games usually are, the wide spread is surprising.
New QB: Falcons are a big favorite this week
Michael Penix Jr. will get his first chance to start in the NFL, and the Atlanta Falcons have found a soft landing spot for him. The rookie will face the New York Giants, who have looked terrible for weeks. Penix has never thrown a meaningful NFL pass and the Falcons have looked bad for weeks, but Atlanta is still an 8.5-point favorite. The wide spread is due to the Giants’ ineptitude, the Falcons likely rallying around Penix in his first start, and the fact that Penix can’t really be a downgrade from the struggling Kirk Cousins.
An interesting line movement has taken place. The line jumped from Falcons -8.5 to -10 on Tuesday morning, when it was clear the Falcons were considering a quarterback change. The change was made and the line was eventually reduced to 8.5. It’s still surprising to see such a large line for an untested starting quarterback replacing a veteran late in the season, but it’s understandable.
Player Prop of the Week: Sam LaPorta receiving yards
The loss of David Montgomery is huge for the Detroit Lions, and that will shift more of the offense to Jahmyr Gibbs. But the Lions have said they don’t want to overload Gibbs. That may mean more to the recipients. That includes tight end Sam LaPorta.
LaPorta isn’t having a huge season, but is coming off a big game with seven catches and 111 yards. That was in large part due to a game script in which the Lions chased and passed a lot of the Buffalo Bills. However, it makes sense that the lions continue to feed him. The Chicago Bears haven’t been a tough opponent when it comes to tight ends and the pass defense as a whole has struggled lately. LaPorta has an even chance of reaching 50 yards against the Bears. That seems reasonable. Jared Goff to throw for 300 yards at odds of +188 also seems feasible.
Interesting underdog: 49ers are road favorites in Miami
There are reasons to believe the San Francisco 49ers should be favored over the Miami Dolphins. They have a little extra peace. Analytics still believes the 49ers are better than their 6-8 record. But what have the 49ers done this season to be a one-point favorite against a decent team?
San Francisco may be the biggest disappointment in the league, and last week’s 12-6 loss to the Rams likely ended any faint hopes of making the playoffs. It’s hard to imagine the 49ers being too excited for the rest of the season. The 49ers are talented enough to beat a Dolphins team that has suffered its own hope-shattering loss, but it’s still surprising to see them favored.
Sunday evening: Cowboys again?
The NFL did not use the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Dallas Cowboys, which is disappointing. Sure, the Cowboys will pull in ratings as usual, but this isn’t the best product the league can offer on Sunday night. At least the Cowboys haven’t stopped completely. They have won three out of four. They’re still a four-point underdog, which is fair. The Buccaneers were better than their 8-6 record would indicate and still need to win games to ensure the Atlanta Falcons don’t take back the division lead. If you want to beat the Cowboys, at least you get a team that’s still in contention.
Monday evening: match between Ugly Saints and Packers
At one point, the New Orleans Saints playing the Green Bay Packers late in the season on Monday night might have made sense to the NFL scheduling folks, but now it’s really a mess. The Saints have been decimated by injuries, the Packers are playing very well and are a heavy 14.5-point favorite heading into Monday night. It’s hard to beat an NFL favorite by more than two touchdowns, but it’s also hard to trust the Saints. The Saints’ rally to nearly beat the Washington Commanders last week perhaps shows they can make this dud of a Monday night game convincing.
