Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = top/bottom). Record last week 8-8 (.500); season 35-29 (.547). If we used point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record over last week’s spread would have been 8-8 (.500); season 32-31-1 (.508). Times Pacific. OUT: Chargers, Lions, Eagles, Titans.
BUCCANIERS (3-1) AT FALCONS (2-2)
Tonight, 5:15 PM. TV: Amazon Prime Video
Line: Falcons with 1½. O/U: 43½.
The Falcons are coming off a win over New Orleans and are starting to gain some momentum. The Buccaneers are going to be tough, especially along the offensive line. Join the home team.
Choose: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 21
JETS (2-2) at VIKINGS (4-0)
Sunday, 6:30 am TV: NFL Network
Line: Vikings with 2½. O/U: 40½.
Sam Darnold has played better than almost anyone could have expected, but this will be a test for the Jets defense. Still, the Jets had a big disappointment last week and are on their way.
Choose: Vikings 21, Jets 18
BROWNS (1-3) AT COMMANDERS (3-1)
Sunday, 10am TV: Channel 11
Line: Commanders per 3. O/U: 44½.
Defense should be the Browns’ strongest point, but that wasn’t enough to carry them. Jayden Daniels is a problem for the defense and has discovered Terry McLaurin.
Choose: Commanders 27, Browns 20
BILLS (3-1) AT TEXANS (3-1)
Sunday, 10am TV: Channel 2
Line: Bills per 1½. O/U: 47½.
While Sean McDermott has a great track record in the immediate aftermath of losses, the Bills have a lot of injuries on defense. CJ Stroud and his corps of receivers can take advantage of that.
Choose: Texans 27, Bills 23
PANTHERS (1-3) AT BEARS (2-2)
Sunday, 10am TV: NFL ticket
Line: Bears with 3½. O/U: 41½.
Although they have a rookie quarterback who is ironing out the wrinkles in his game, the Bears are getting it done defensively. The Panthers are slightly better with Andy Dalton, but still bad.
Choose: Bears 24, Panthers 17
RAVENEN (2-2) AT BENGALS (1-3)
Sunday, 10am TV: NFL ticket
Line: Raven with 2½. O/U: 50½.
Baltimore is trying to use Derrick Henry even though Lamar Jackson is mainly in the shotgun. That will allow the Ravens to dictate the pace in this AFC North showdown. Does a win get the Bengals on the right track?
Choose: Ravens 28, Bengals 24
FOLDING (2-2) AT JAGUARS (0-4)
Sunday, 10am TV: NFL ticket
Line: Jaguars by 2½. O/U: 46½.
The Jaguars are winless, but they have been close in three of their four losses. Trevor Lawrence has to break through at some point. The Colts have won two in a row but are in for a disappointment.
Choose: Jaguars 21, Colts 20
DOLPHINS (1-3) AT PATRIOTS (1-3)
Sunday, 10am TV: NFL ticket
Line: Patriots by 1½. O/U: 35½.
The Patriots got smoked by San Francisco, and the Dolphins got smoked by Tennessee. With a healthy quarterback, Miami has the talent to beat anyone, but the quarterback is a problem right now.
Choose: Patriots 16, Dolphins 13
RAIDERS (2-2) AT BRONCOS (2-2)
Sunday, 1:05 PM TV: NFL ticket
Line: Broncos by 2½. O/U: 35½.
Denver’s defense is on fire, holding Tampa Bay to seven and the Jets to nine – both on the road. The Raiders have alternated wins and losses and there is some dissension within their ranks.
Choose: Broncos 20, Raiders 17
CARDINALS (1-3) AT 49ERS (2-2)
Sunday, 1:05 PM TV: NFL ticket
Line: 49ers at 7½. O/U: 49½.
The Cardinals were embarrassed by the Commanders last Sunday, the first time they have been blown out this season. They were able to bounce back a little against the 49ers, but not enough.
Choose: 49ers 31, Cardinals 27
PACKERS (2-2) AT WINDOWS (1-3)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m TV: Channel 2
Line: Packers per 3. O/U: 48½.
The Packers fell just short in a loss to Minnesota. The Rams are missing a lot of pieces and their secondary is being picked apart. Matthew Stafford will keep it close, but Green Bay will pull away down the stretch.
Choose: Packers 27, Rams 21
GIANTS (1-3) AT SEAHAWKS (3-1)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m TV: NFL ticket
Line: Seahawks with 6½. O/U: 43½.
The Seahawks held their own against Detroit with some defenders behind them. Seattle should get healthier, and the Giants could be without rookie receiver sensation Malik Nabers. This can quickly get out of hand.
Choose: Seahwaks 24, Giants 10
COWBOYS (2-2) at STEELERS (3-1)
Sunday, 5:20 p.m TV: Channel 4
Line: Steelers by 1½. O/U: 42½.
A defensive battle. The Steelers can make the Cowboys one-dimensional by shutting down the run. It’s hard to pile too many expectations on Justin Fields’ shoulders, but the Steelers are hanging in there.
Choose: Steelers 20, Cowboys 16
SAINTS (2-2) AT CHIEFS (4-0)
Monday, 5:15 PM TV: ESPN
Line: Leaders with 5½. O/U: 42½.
The Chiefs haven’t shut anyone down, but they’re getting the job done on defense. New Orleans should stay this close, especially with that defense, but give the defending champions an edge.
Choose: Heads 24, saints 21
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This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.