A tropical depression is likely to form next week with the gradual development of a system that continues to develop in the Caribbean.
National Hurricane Center forecasters say there is an 80% chance that a broad area of low pressure will develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next seven days. A system further east, near Puerto Rico, is moving eastward and could produce thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles before being absorbed into another system.
Meanwhile, there’s another named storm far from Texas. Subtropical storm Patty formed west of the Azores on Saturday morning.
What does all this mean for the coasts of the United States? There are many questions, and hurricane strikes in November remain rare.
“The most reliable indications suggest that the western flank of that driving high pressure will still extend across the Gulf, causing a potential storm to continue moving westward or northwestward into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” said Ryan Truchalat, forecaster owner of Weathertiger , which provides reporting for the USA TODAY network.
“A minority of model ensemble members have a faster, stronger frontal passage, in which case a storm could theoretically turn northeast toward Florida near the Yucatan or Cuba by the end of next week or the following weekend.”
In short, everything is clear for Texas and the US this weekend, but stay informed about the situation.
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The next storm names are Rafael and Sara.
Here are details on what’s available from 1pm on November 2:
Where is Subtropical Storm Patty? Will a Hurricane Hit Texas?
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Location: .39.0N, 32.4W about 300 miles west-northwest of the Azores
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Maximum sustained wind: 65 km/h
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current movement: East-southeast at a speed of 21 km/h
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Mminimum central pressure: 982MB
The center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 39.0 north and longitude 32.4 west. The storm is moving east-southeast at a speed of 13 miles per hour. Faster east-southeastward movement is expected through this evening, followed by a turn to the east and east-northeast on Sunday and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 miles per hour with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected today, but gradual weakening is forecast through early next week. Patty could become a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday. Winds of 40 km/h extend outward up to 330 km from the center.
Hazards to land:
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WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in parts of the Azores this weekend.
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RAINFALL: Patty is expected to bring rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches in the Azores through Sunday.
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SURFING: The swell generated by Patty will hit the Azores in the coming days. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
November brings tropical development closer to Texas, USA
Since 1851, only four hurricanes have hit the U.S. coast in November.
While the months earlier in the Atlantic hurricane season typically see tropical waves emerge off the African coast that give people plenty of advance notice as they cross the Atlantic, that is not the case for the final month of the season.
“As we move into early November, the focus for tropical development is shifting closer to the United States. Normally the areas of focus late in the season are the Caribbean and off the southeast coast,” DaSilva said.
A tropical depression could form in the Caribbean late this week
Southwestern Caribbean Sea: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are accompanied by a broad low-pressure area.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the coming days as the system moves generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible in parts of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests in the western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system.
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Formation opportunity for 48 hours: High, 70 percent.
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Training opportunity for 7 days: High, 80 percent.
What else is there and how likely are they to get stronger?
Near the Greater Antilles: A large area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds extending northeastward from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola for several hundred kilometers is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles.
This system is expected to be incorporated into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea early next week. Regardless of the development, locally heavy rain showers are possible in the coming days in the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
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Formation opportunity for 48 hours: Low, 10 percent.
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Training opportunity for 7 days: Low, 10 percent.
Who is likely to be affected?
Waters in the Caribbean remain warm enough to support tropical development, AccuWeather forecasters said Saturday morning.
The disturbing breeze, also called wind shear, remains low in the region.
“At this time, the most likely broad zone for tropical development would be over the western and central Caribbean, and the time frame for development would be Saturday through Tuesday,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. This feature could first develop somewhere near the large northern islands of the Caribbean – possibly Jamaica.”
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When is the Atlantic Hurricane Season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
– USA TODAY NETWORK reporters John Gallas and CA Bridges contributed to this report.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: NHC: Subtropical Storm Patty forms, 2 other Caribbean systems tracked
