Whoever hoists the national championship trophy in Atlanta at the end of January will certainly have earned it. That’s one of my biggest takeaways as I dig deeper into the first 12-team College Football Playoff round.
That certainly applies to No. 1 Oregon, which would have to go through Ohio State or Tennessee to reach the semifinals. That the path is so difficult for the No. 1 overall seed is a problem caused by an unbalanced bracket; because the top four seeds are designated as spots for the four highest-ranked conference champions, not necessarily the top four teams of the twelve in the field.
Ultimately, I trust the Ducks to survive and progress in this format. They are the only undefeated team in FBS for a reason; No one else has weathered the ups and downs of a college football season as well as she has. They won their clunkers (against Idaho and Wisconsin), and they also beat the best teams they played all year (Ohio State, Penn State and Boise State). They’ve been consistent in a season with so many teams that weren’t. And I trust veteran quarterback Dillon Gabriel more than any other quarterback in this area.
Oregon was my preseason pick to win it all. Now that the official tournament has been announced, the Ducks remain my pick to win it all.
As you can tell from my picks, I’m very high on Notre Dame. I believe the Fighting Irish’s elite defense, combined with a great rushing attack, prepares them quite well for what lies ahead. Their strengths will remain strengths regardless of the weather in their first-round matchup in South Bend (and their defensive front should be able to hold off against an Indiana offensive line that struggled against Michigan and Ohio State, the only two teams to date that face defensive fronts with future pros (just like Notre Dame’s). I’m still not sure the Irish can come back in a game when they are behind by several scores because we don’t know how effective and efficient the passing game is against good defenses And I think that would happen against the Ducks, who can strike quickly and put a lot of pressure on Riley Leonard and co.
Georgia announced Monday that starting quarterback Carson Beck is exploring treatment options for the elbow injury he suffered in the SEC championship game and that there is no timetable for his return. It’s hard to have much confidence in Georgia without knowing Beck’s availability (and if he plays in the CFP, whether he has any limitations). However, I’m not sure I would have picked the ‘Dawgs to get past the quarterfinals even without the injury considering how inconsistent this team has been all season. Georgia at its best (against Texas, for example) is undoubtedly one of the best teams in the country. But at worst, it’s very beatable. That’s why I’m letting the Irish knock them out in the quarterfinals.
Penn State has one of the most advantageous routes to the semifinals, drawing No. 3 seed Boise State as its quarterfinal opponent if it beats SMU at home in the first round. And while I think SMU’s speed could pose some problems for the Penn State secondary, I think the Nittany Lions will take care of business against the Mustangs and also pick apart Boise State’s defense. As long as Penn State’s offense is firing close to all cylinders like it did in the Big Ten championship game (ideally without those Drew Allar turnovers), this team is certainly talented enough to beat either opponent.
I have Texas beating Clemson in the first round, but losing to red-hot Arizona State in the quarterfinals. The concerns I have about the Longhorns were evident in both losses to Georgia, and even though the Sun Devils don’t have as much overall talent as the Bulldogs, I think they can completely overwhelm an opponent, as we saw in the Big 12- title. game. I’m concerned about the limits on trespassing in Texas. Can the Longhorns finish the run? Can they run the ball against good defensive fronts? Can Quinn Ewers avoid a debilitating turnover? I think I know the answers against Clemson. But Arizona State’s defense is ahead of Georgia’s. If the Sun Devils can make Texas one-dimensional… If they can get off the field on third down… If Kenny Dillingham can light a fire under his guys… I think we can give Arizona State its magical season can see lengthening. Well, one more match.
Oregon still comes out on top when all is said and done. And yes, Dan Lanning, we will certainly enjoy ourselves.
