Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist Reform UK Party has overtaken the ruling Conservative Party ahead of the July 4 general election, according to a new poll released on Thursday, providing more bad news for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak./p>
The YouGov survey conducted from June 12 to 13 among a sample of 2,211 adults expects the Labor Party to win 37% of the vote, followed by Reform UK with 19%, which is one point ahead of the Conservatives.
Farage, an ally of former President Donald Trump, had previously said he did not plan to run in next month’s election so he could focus on the US presidential race. But in early June he changed his mind.
This is the first poll in which Farage’s party has a lead over the Tories, who have been in power for fourteen years. However, the polling station noted that the result is within the margin of error.
“Given these considerations, it is perhaps fairer to say at this point – given the results of the last few polls – that Reform UK is neck and neck with the Conservatives,” YouGov said.
The Conservatives have struggled in the election campaign after Sunak made several blunders, including the highly controversial decision to leave the D-Day celebrations in Normandy early and return to Britain for an ITV interview. Sunak, who has a net approval rating of -51 according to YouGov, apologized for the mistake.
Sunak said on Friday he will continue to fight to earn the support of the British public for the rest of the campaign. He warned that if the poll results were to stand on election day, it would be the equivalent of handing a “blank check” to the Labor Party.
“Ultimately, a vote for everyone who isn’t a Conservative candidate makes that more likely [Labour Party leader] Keir Starmer is at number 10,” Sunak told reporters, referring to the Prime Minister’s office at 10 Downing Street.
Pollster John Curtice said that while this is just one poll, it highlights a key area of concern for Sunak.
At the last British general election, the Brexit Party, the predecessor to Reform UK, nominated any candidates in Conservative-held constituencies.
“This time the reforms are happening almost everywhere in England, Scotland and Wales,” Curtice wrote for the BBC. “This means the reforms are likely to take most of the votes away from the Conservatives in the seats Rishi Sunak’s party is trying to defend.”
The Conservatives, then led by Boris Johnson, won 43.6% of the vote in the 2019 general election. Johnson was forced to resign in July 2022 amid public anger over flouting COVID rules and accusations of misconduct.
Despite the momentum Farage’s party is showing, Britain’s first-past-the-post system means that Reform UK could ultimately not win any seats.
Still, the poll has encouraged Farage, who told reporters at a press conference on Friday that the July 4 race is the “first step for the party on the road to building 2029.”
