A May 23 report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration doubled previous predictions of destructive hurricanes in 2024, adding less than a week from the start of hurricane season.
With up to 25 possible storms, including four to seven major hurricanes, there is a predicted 85% chance of an above-average year. NOAA Director Rick Spinrad said at a May 23 news conference that the season would be “extraordinary.”
Spinrad also said the outlook for May this year is the most intense ever forecast by NOAA.
“Note that the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” he said.
With Texas, the Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas at increased risk from the intensity of this year’s hurricanes, here’s what you need to know from NOAA.
More: The outlook for the 2024 hurricane season worsens for North Carolina: La Niña is on its way
How many hurricanes are predicted in 2024?
According to the most recent NOAA forecast, forecasters reported 70% confidence in the following numbers for this year:
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A series of 17-25 named storms in total. Storms with winds of 39 mph or higher are given names.
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Eight to 13 storms are expected to develop into hurricanes, which means wind speeds of 75 miles per hour or higher.
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4-7 major hurricanes – Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 110 mph or greater.
While it’s impossible to say at this point exactly what the season has in store for the NC coast, AccuWeather said Hurricane Matthew, the Category 5 hurricane that was the most powerful storm of the 2016 season, is an “analog” for this year. Matthew occurred during La Niña, similar to what is expected to happen this year.
The National Weather Service website says Matthew was directly responsible for 25 deaths in NC plus four in SC, all but one of which were caused by the massive flooding the states saw. Damage in the US was estimated at $10.3 billion by the National Center for Environmental Information, and the name “Matthew” was removed from the list of Atlantic hurricane names following the devastation it wrought across the Caribbean islands and the Southeast of the United States.
More: How many tornadoes have there been in Asheville, Buncombe? What you need to know about mountain twisters.
When is the Atlantic Hurricane Season?
The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1. The season runs until November 30.
Why is the 2024 hurricane season predicted to be bad?
Several factors contribute to the prediction of an ‘explosive’ hurricane season. The May 23 report noted waters in the Atlantic Ocean reaching near-record temperatures, reduced Atlantic trade winds, less wind shear and the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
NOAA forecasters indicated an 85% chance that La Niña will form in the fall and, more directly, a 69% chance that La Niña will develop in the summer months, July-September.
More: Tornado Alley may be expanding; This is why the southern states are in danger
Atlantic hurricane names 2024
Storm names are issued in alphabetical order, with each storm that occurs being given the next name on the list. There are no names starting with Q, U, X, Y or Z due to a lack of usable names.
The list of names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is:
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Alberto
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Beryl
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Chris
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Debby
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Ernesto
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Francine
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Gordon
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Helene
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Isaac
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Joyce
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Kirk
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Leslie
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Milton
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Nadine
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Oscar
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Patty
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Raphael
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Sara
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Show
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Valerie
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William
If all 21 names are used, additional names are used. Here is the list of 21 additional hurricane names from the World Meteorological Organization:
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Adria
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Braylen
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Caridad
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Deshawn
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Emery
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To feed
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Gemma
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Heather
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Isla
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James
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Kenzie
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Lucio
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Makayla
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Nolan
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Orlando
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Pax
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Ronin
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Sophie
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Tayshaun
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Viviana
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Shall
Iris Seaton is the trending news reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at iseaton@citizentimes.com.
This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Hurricane season 2024: NOAA predicts up to 25 named Atlantic storms
