With just three days until the election, former President Donald Trump’s campaign remains uneasy about his prospects in North Carolina, a Sun Belt state he claimed in two consecutive presidential elections.
When asked why, a Trump campaign official put it bluntly.
“If there’s one state that can get you in trouble, it’s North Carolina,” the official said.
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At the same time, Vice President Kamala Harris’ team, which less than two weeks ago feared the Tar Heel State was “slipping a little bit,” now views the state as “very much in play,” a senior campaign official said.
Their dueling prospects emerged as both campaigns touched down in North Carolina, with the candidates rallying voters in a battle for the margin of error that raises the stakes in any battleground. Lately, Trump has veered off course, heading to states like Virginia and New Mexico in the final days of the campaign, declaring he could expand his map.
Still, he has made a plan to return to North Carolina every day until the election.
On Saturday, Trump held rallies in Greensboro and Gastonia, visiting Virginia in between, while Harris landed in Charlotte for a large rally. Trump returns to Kinston on Sunday and will then hold a rally in Raleigh on Monday.
While Harris campaign aides on social media chided Trump for taking a defensive stance in a state that hasn’t turned blue since 2008, the Trump campaign characterized the repeated visits to North Carolina as an aggressive, all-out strategy.
“Now the fate of our nation is in your hands,” Trump said during his rally in Gastonia on Saturday. “If we win this state, we’re going to win the whole ball game.”
Like many battlegrounds, North Carolina’s polling averages show the state within the margin of error, giving Trump a narrow lead.
The political dynamic has shifted sharply in the final months of the race after Hurricane Helene ravaged the western part of the state, destroying entire towns and displacing dozens of people, largely in rural areas. A barrage of disinformation pushed by Trump — even as it was debunked by members of his own party — left Democrats fearing the narrative was too much to overcome.
But Harris remains within striking distance. If she succeeds in claiming the state, she could potentially block Trump’s path to victory. But she would still have to win Pennsylvania, a state where each campaign has had more success than any other.
If Harris loses Pennsylvania but retains the other “blue wall” states of Wisconsin and Michigan and somehow wins North Carolina, that still wouldn’t be enough to win the necessary 270 Electoral College votes.
She would also need electoral votes from another state that President Joe Biden won in 2020, such as Nevada. So far, Republicans are showing strength compared to Democrats in early voter turnout in the Silver State, which also includes a large swath of unaffiliated voters. It’s unclear how these voters break, and election day turnout remains an unknown, as does the intraparty vote.
A longtime Republican strategist involved in North Carolina voter turnout who was not authorized to speak publicly said Trump should feel emboldened by the strength of his party’s early rise.
“Before this election, Republicans have never had a cumulative lead in early voting,” the person said. “This isn’t just a mood swing, though. We have studied this. Republicans in North Carolina have seen lower rates of cannibalization,” he added, referring to the number of high-propensity voters who are simply more likely to vote.
The increase in Republican votes in this election can be attributed, at least in part, to the party’s heavy message on early voting. Data from Friday shows Republicans leading Democrats in North Carolina. But like Nevada, unaffiliated voters also made up a large portion of the early electorate, and how they break up is largely unknown.
Democrats have a very different interpretation of the early numbers.
“Republicans are definitely performing slightly better than Democrats. But… what I’m reading is that 55% of the votes are women, and every poll shows women supporting Democrats and showing their largest gender gap in North Carolina history,” said Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson.
Jackson added that suburban voters voted by 2 points more than their registration share, and that in every competitive election since the fall of Roe v. Wade, Democrats have outperformed polls that included women, unaffiliated voters, voters in the suburbanites and Republican women.
“That’s why I’m optimistic about this election,” Jackson said. “I think the fact that Trump has visited North Carolina more than any other state in recent days indicates that they are seeing the same thing in the early voting numbers that I am, and they are concerned.”
North Carolina Democrats have also expressed confidence that they have a superior ground game. Voter registrations soared as Harris entered the race, and her rallies around the state have drawn large crowds, including Saturday’s, which the campaign said drew about 10,000 people. Republicans have pointed to lower black turnout as a red flag for Democrats in the state, but strategists in the party say it has actually remained at pre-Obama levels, which they expected.
Democrats have also inundated Republicans in general with ads in the state, spending $66.2 million to $42.4 million between Oct. 1 and Nov. 2. But Republicans have closed that gap. A huge lead in ad spending from October 1 to 26 ($54 million for Democrats and nearly $29 million for Republicans) disappeared last week, as Republicans narrowly outspent Democrats by more than $13.7 million to $12. 3 million, all according to AdImpact, an ad tracking company.
On Saturday in Charlotte, Harris advocated for voters to go to the polls and turn the page on Trump, whom she saw as divisive.
“North Carolina, I’m here asking for your vote. … I pledge to seek common and common sense solutions to the challenges you face,” the Vice President said. “I promise you will listen to experts, to people who disagree with me. Because you see, unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe that people who disagree with me are the enemy.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
