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Hurricane Helene devastated rural mountain towns in North Carolina, a key voting bloc for Trump.
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Some analysts and candidates expect voter turnout in the region to be lower as the population rebuilds.
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North Carolina is a critical state, where Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck.
Three weeks after Hurricane Helene devastated western North Carolina, hundreds of roads and bridges are still damaged or closed and tens of thousands of residents are still without running water. Many have been displaced after losing their homes and businesses, while others are still cleaning up dirt and debris.
Because many Helene survivors are still in the midst of recovery, especially residents of rural mountain towns, political analysts and candidates told Business Insider they expect turnout to be lower in the western region of the state. The latest polls show former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck, with North Carolina remaining a crucial battleground for both candidates’ victory.
“Voting is not the top priority for a lot of people right now,” said Chris Cooper, a professor of political science at Western Carolina University. “Even among the most committed voters, if they don’t have drinking water, their priorities have shifted. So I expect turnout to drop in the most affected provinces.”
Cooper said his home was largely spared by Helene, but some family members who live in Asheville have temporarily moved to South Carolina. That includes his father, who planned to vote early and in person but now must request a mail-in ballot.
Early voting began in North Carolina on October 17, and election officials said in-person turnout surpassed a previous record set in 2020. At the county level, state election officials told BI that comparing this year’s numbers to 2020 would not be accurate because of several caveats, including the fact that the 2020 absentee-by-mail voting period started two weeks earlier than this year.
North Carolina’s rural mountain areas previously favored Trump. He won North Carolina by fewer than 75,000 votes in the 2020 presidential race, with strong support in areas outside urban centers. That included 11 of the 13 counties hardest hit by Helene. The two exceptions were Buncombe County, where Asheville is located, and Watauga County.
Democrats want to turn around historically red North Carolina and see a path in fast-growing suburban areas like Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham and Fayetteville. Harris is trying to win over black and college-educated voters, as well as women who oppose the state’s restrictive abortion law. But Helene’s aftermath has become a political lightning rod, with Trump attacking the Biden administration’s response.
Officials say North Carolina residents know the importance of voting
The traditional ways of reaching people, such as door knocking and social media, are not as accessible due to the destruction and poor internet service. This has made it difficult for campaign workers to track and combat rumors.
Trump spread disinformation by telling participants at a campaign rally that Harris stole emergency response funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and spent it on migrant housing. He also wrote on Truth Social that the federal government and Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, went out of their way not to help Republican areas.
The Biden administration and some Republican politicians have debunked the claims, including Rep. Chuck Edwards, a Republican who represents North Carolina’s 11th district, which was devastated by Helene.
Edwards told BI that he has been working around the clock to connect survivors with the resources they need. He issued a statement on October 8 after being inundated with emails and phone calls from people angry about unfounded rumors.
“I was getting calls from people all over the country wanting to send staff, equipment and water, but worried it wouldn’t get to the right location because of the rumors,” Edwards told BI. “First of all, FEMA was confiscating supplies and turning people away. There’s absolutely no truth to that.”
Edwards added that while people are trying to get their lives back on track, they understand that important elections are just around the corner. They are motivated to come out and vote for Trump, he said.
“They remember what our lives were like the day before the storm,” Edwards said, pointing to inflation, oil prices and a crisis at the southern border.
Edwards’ competitor, Rep. Caleb Rudow, is a Democrat who represents Buncombe County in the state Legislature. He has been campaigning and posting on social media talking about the importance of this election, especially after Helene.
Rudow said the state needs elected officials who want to solve the climate crisis, which is fueling more intense hurricanes. He also told BI that the relief efforts by state, local and federal officials after Helene demonstrated the power of government in the aftermath of a disaster.
Rudow added that people are resilient and part of the recovery is getting life back to normal. That includes talking about these issues and voting.
Still, people who have lost their homes and loved ones are probably not thinking about voting, said Bob Phillips, executive director of Common Cause North Carolina, a voter rights organization. But it is difficult to predict how Helene will influence turnout.
Election officials in North Carolina have made emergency changes to expand voting access for residents recovering from the storm.
“Helene will be part of this election, and we’ll just have to see what the drop-off is,” Phillips said.
Have you been affected by Hurricane Helene and would you like to share your voting story? Contact cboudreau@businessinsider.com.
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