Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) The stock’s stellar rally will be put to the test when the semiconductor giant reports its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results (for the three months ended October 27) on November 20, as investors and analysts will expect the chipmaker to artificial intelligence will continue (AI)-powered wave.
At the time of writing, Nvidia shares are up a whopping 196% so far in 2024 and are richly valued. In this article, I’ll take a look at how Nvidia stock has performed following the release of its previous four quarterly results, before looking at what’s in store for investors when it releases its next set of results.
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The following chart summarizes the market’s immediate reaction to Nvidia’s previous four quarterly reports.
|
Date |
Period |
Revenue (in $ billion) |
Change from year to year |
Earnings per share |
Change from year to year |
Immediate change of course |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
November 21, 2023 |
Q3 fiscal year 2024 |
$18 |
206% |
$4.02 |
593% |
-2% |
|
February 21, 2023 |
Q4 fiscal year 2024 |
$22 |
265% |
$5.16 |
486% |
+16% |
|
Be able to. 22, 2024 |
Q1 fiscal year 2025 |
$26 |
262% |
$6.12 |
461% |
+9% |
|
August 28, 2024 |
Q2 fiscal year 2025 |
$30 |
122% |
$0.68 |
152% |
-6% |
Source: publications of the quarterly figures of Nvidia and Yahoo! Financial historical price data.
When Nvidia announced its third-quarter 2024 financial results a year ago, the stock fell on concerns about the company’s operations in China due to U.S. government restrictions on exports to the country. The market ignored the company’s better-than-expected results and impressive expectations at the time.
However, the next two quarterly reports gave Nvidia stock a nice boost as the company continued its streak of healthy revenue and profit growth thanks to solid demand for its AI graphics processing units (GPUs). However, when Nvidia announced its previous quarterly results in August this year, investors appeared to have taken issue with the relatively slower growth rate the company reported.
It’s worth noting that Nvidia’s revenue growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 was a slowdown from the growth it delivered in the previous three quarters. Of course, the company more than doubled its revenue year-over-year, and profits also rose impressively, but by then Wall Street had become accustomed to much stronger growth in both revenue and profit.
Additionally, Nvidia expected third-quarter revenue of $32.5 billion, which would translate into a year-over-year increase of nearly 80%. The chipmaker’s expectations therefore indicate that sales will not double compared to the previous year’s period when the results are announced on November 20. The bigger picture, however, is that Nvidia stock has tripled in the past year, taking into account the immediate price swings after quarterly results.
That’s not surprising, as recent market developments have made it clear that the company still remains the dominant player in AI chips, a market that shows no signs of slowing down. Investors would therefore do well to focus on the bigger picture when Nvidia releases its quarterly report.
The relative slowdown in Nvidia’s growth compared to previous quarters makes sense, as the company now has a much higher revenue base. Even then, an 80% increase in quarterly sales is no mean feat, especially considering that rivals like AMD have found it difficult to make a notable dent in the AI chip market and have struggled to take market share from Nvidia.
For example, AMD’s Q3 2024 revenue rose 18% year over year to $6.8 billion. The company’s data center business posted a 122% year-over-year revenue increase to $3.5 billion. That pales in comparison to the 154% year-over-year increase in Nvidia’s data center revenue in its fiscal second quarter to a massive $26.3 billion.
In other words, Nvidia is growing faster than AMD, despite a larger revenue base. That’s because the company is the largest supplier of AI chips, with a market share of no less than 95%. More importantly, this dominance looks set to continue as demand for Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell AI processors will outpace supply by 2025, which isn’t surprising as these chips are expected to maintain their technological lead over AMD’s offerings.
Analysts are optimistic about sales of Nvidia’s Blackwell processors, according to a report from Morgan Stanley (via Tom’s Hardware) suggesting the company could sell $200 billion worth of these chips next year. If that does indeed happen, Nvidia’s revenue could well exceed expectations in the next fiscal year.
According to the chart above, Nvidia’s revenue is expected to more than double in fiscal 2025 from last year’s $60.9 billion. Analysts predict another 43% increase in sales next fiscal year, but strong demand for Blackwell could see the company easily exceed that figure.
So if Nvidia delivers a better-than-expected outlook for the current quarter thanks to the successful launch of its Blackwell processors, it could pave the way for more upside potential in this AI stock even after the stellar gains it has posted this year .
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Harsh Chauhan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool holds positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Nvidia Stock has done this after its last four quarterly results. Here’s What It Can Do After November 20 was originally published by The Motley Fool
