As Election Day finally arrives, election officials, legal experts and researchers are preparing for a barrage of misinformation and legal claims as vote counting begins.
The final week of the campaign featured three dynamics that could lead to a protracted legal dispute if results are close, legal experts said.
Numerous lawsuits — many of them frivolous — have already been filed, domestic and foreign actors are spreading false stories of voter fraud, and former President Donald Trump continues to claim that the election will be rigged against him.
“They have already started cheating,” Trump said Sunday at a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
Election experts say that if a clear winner emerges quickly and the vote proceeds without major disruptions, large numbers of Americans can have confidence in the outcome. But they warned that delays in the count or a tight race in which a single state decides the presidency could lead to a divisive legal battle.
The longer the race remains unresolved, experts predicted, the more time domestic and foreign actors will have to spread disinformation that will sow doubt, discord and division about the results.
Danielle Tomson, research manager at the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public, predicted an increase in election day rumors “as more people go to the polls and experience both real and perceived problems with voting.”
“The problem is when political actors or influencers take one real issue,” Tomson said, “and misleadingly exaggerate its impact or scope to indicate a larger coordinated fraud or massive conspiracy.”
“We expect there will be a huge focus on swing states, voting machines and voter eligibility,” she said.
Arizona elections official Jennifer Liewer said she and her colleagues are prepared for the vote and any disruptions.
“The reality is we have security personnel monitoring to make sure there are threats… the right people are aware of it,” said Liewer, Maricopa County’s deputy elections director.
But she acknowledged that she and her colleagues have no idea how the final chapter of the 2024 election will unfold.
“We don’t know what will happen once the results are announced and how people will react,” she said. “We hope they will have confidence in the system.”
A flood of misinformation and legal claims
In Seattle, 25 researchers from the Center for an Informed Public will work in shifts to document rumors as they arise on Election Day and beyond. It is one of the few large-scale academic projects still studying election disinformation — several prominent others were shut down or weakened in response to a conservative attack on such research.
In published introductions, the researchers have said they expect to see a steady stream of rumors throughout the day — potentially hundreds of videos, photos and statements claiming to document suspected irregularities, conspiracy theories or concerns that Trump and his allies could cite as evidence of voter fraud.
This election season has already been defined by online content claiming voting machines malfunctioning, unfair voting orders and illegal voting by non-citizens, as well as false conspiracy allegations involving the news media and other viral videos that had to be debunked by election officials, secretaries of state and federal agencies.
Conservative groups that promote election conspiracy theories have also signaled their intention to portray irregularities or routine processes as fraud, such as extended counting times in states where workers do not have the ability to pre-process mail-in or absentee ballots.
A misleading ad from the Election Integrity Network says, “The Glitch Is In,” alongside a carousel of coverage of such procedural issues on Election Day. Election Integrity Network founder Cleta Mitchell promotes her 1,000-member group as a kind of “national neighborhood watch.”
Researchers also point to a new kind of infrastructure around documenting and sharing such rumors on Election Day. While in years past they were more likely to appear organically on social media platforms, this year official channels have been built to direct the so-called evidence to channels where it can be used.
Videos are already flooding X, especially on a channel that X owner Elon Musk, a major Trump supporter, has promoted through his America PAC. Described as “dedicated to sharing potential cases of voter fraud and irregularities facing Americans in the 2024 elections,” the community has more than 60,000 members and is already a hub for baseless rumors.
The top posts in that community on Tuesday included videos from political activists known for their misleading content: including one from the Heritage Foundation claiming voters were registering with illegal addresses in Maricopa County, Ariz. and James O’Keefe, which suggests that non-citizens voted in Philadelphia.
That public depository joins other existing clearinghouses that election deniers claim reveal widespread fraud. Election conspiracy theorists, including MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, and activists from True the Vote, are offering apps to collect alleged evidence of fraud.
In addition to fear-mongering, experts expect such content from voters, pollsters, influencers and operatives to become the subject of lawsuits challenging the results.
“Election deniers are willing to grab at the thinnest straw and try to make this a federal issue, both figuratively and literally,” said Ben Berwick, chief of election law and litigation at Protect Democracy, a nonprofit organization focused on protecting the integrity of American elections.
Part of the effort to cast doubt on the results of the 2020 election and the midterm elections two years later, Berwick said, was based on affidavits and statements from eyewitnesses who say they believe they saw something illegal.
“In all cases, it turned out that the person who signed the statement misunderstood what he saw, or in some cases it was just really made up,” Berwick said. “The 2020 lawsuits were dismissed in part because there was absolutely no evidence to support the claims of wrongdoing. I’m sure this time there will be an attempt to come to court with more quote and unquote evidence, right?
“Anything they can get their hands on, that they can twist to look like some kind of conspiracy, fraud or even a mistake,” he added, “whatever they can get their hands on, they will use.”
Foreign interference and increased security
Meanwhile, foreign actors spread their own disinformation and amplify false claims made by Americans. On Monday evening, the FBI and officials from the National Intelligence Director’s Office and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said the U.S. intelligence community has identified two more Russian-produced fake videos intended to undermine Americans’ confidence in the election results.
“Russian influence actors recently posted and expanded on an article falsely claiming that U.S. officials in swing states are planning to orchestrate election fraud using a range of tactics, such as ballot fraud and cyberattacks,” the statement said. “Russian influence actors also manufactured and amplified a recent video that falsely depicted an interview with an individual alleging election fraud in Arizona.”
The agencies said the video, which Arizona’s secretary of state previously refuted, falsely described a scheme that created counterfeit foreign ballots and altered voter rolls in favor of Democrat Kamala Harris.
The Secret Service also announced Monday that it will install additional fencing around the White House, the Naval Observatory — Harris’ official residence as vice president — and the Palm Beach County, Florida, Convention Center, where Trump plans to to speak on election night.
Twenty states also placed about 250 National Guard troops on active duty so they could be available for election support. The troops are mainly activated when needed for cyber support, law enforcement or general support.
In Arizona, Liewer, Maricopa County’s deputy elections director, said on election night that she is still hoping for the best.
“Tomorrow is what we work so hard for. It is that voters can come and cast their votes in these elections. Everything we do is for that,” she says. “That is what motivates us, to ensure that this is done fairly and transparently. That is what guides us.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
