Oklahoma County is expected to see a rise in temperatures, potentially exposing residents to more damaging effects of warming, according to a USA TODAY analysis of climate projection data.
Compared to historical data, annual temperatures in Oklahoma County could increase by 2.68 degrees over the next two decades, according to data from the Climate Impact Lab. The analysis uses provincial-level temperature projections to assess how annual warming and extreme heat are expected to change between 2020 and 2040.
Oklahoma County will also have another 24 days of temperatures above 90 degrees, data shows.
“We are already experiencing increases in warming and extreme heat across the country,” said Kelly McCusker, climate scientist at the Climate Impact Lab. “I think a lot about how that will worsen… and how that heat affects people unequally.”
How much hotter will your county of Oklahoma become?
Here’s what you can expect in your region in 2040:
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Oklahoma county: Oklahoma County is expected to see a moderate temperature increase of about 80 degrees, and there could be about 24 days above 90 degrees each year.
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Tulsa County: Tulsa County is expected to see a significant increase in temperatures of about 2.78 degrees, and there could be about 22 days above 90 degrees each year.
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Cleveland DistrictCleveland County is expected to see a moderate temperature increase of about 80 degrees, with about 24 more days above 90 degrees each year.
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Canadian province: Canadian County is expected to see a moderate temperature increase of about 2.67 degrees, and there could be about 23 days above 90 degrees each year.
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Comanche Province: Comanche County is expected to see a moderate temperature increase of about 2.56 degrees, and there could be about 23 days above 90 degrees each year.
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Rogers County: Rogers County is expected to see a significant increase in temperatures of about 70 degrees, and there could be about 22 days above 90 degrees each year.
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Wagoner County: Wagoner County is expected to see a significant increase in temperatures of about 70 degrees, and there could be about 22 days above 90 degrees each year.
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Payne County: Payne County is expected to see a significant increase in temperatures of about 70 degrees, and there could be about 23 days above 90 degrees each year.
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Pottawatomie County: Pottawatomie County is expected to see a moderate temperature increase of about 80 degrees, and there could be about 23 days above 90 degrees each year.
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Creek County: Creek County is expected to see a significant increase in temperatures of about 70 degrees, and there could be about 22 days above 90 degrees each year.
What impact will warming have on the rest of the US?
According to USA TODAY, climate change is expected to have a noticeable but uneven impact on temperatures in the US over the next two decades.
The Gulf Coast could see a significant increase in extreme heat. Large parts of the northern US could experience dramatic warming. And across the country, more Americans could be exposed to the harmful effects of heating.
The analysis also highlights the potential for cooler regions of the US to experience a significant increase in average annual temperatures. Meanwhile, warmer states are expected to see the biggest increases in days above 95 degrees.
Across the country, escaping the effects of climate change could become more challenging. While historically cooler areas are getting much warmer, warmer areas are experiencing more dangerous heat.
Dangerous heat increases in warmer regions
Projections show that many counties already experiencing warm weather will experience many more days of dangerous heat within the next 20 years.
USA TODAY has grouped counties based on the number of additional days above 90 degrees they could experience.
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More than 1,000 counties are expected to see the largest increases with more than 21 additional days above 90 degrees.
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Nearly 750 counties with 14 to 21 additional days above 90 degrees could see “more” increases in extreme heat, while about 640 counties with seven to 14 additional days are expected to see “some” increases.
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About 830 counties are expected to experience “few” additional days of extreme heat, meaning fewer than seven more days will be above 90 degrees.
These categories also closely approximate natural ‘breaks’ in the distribution of data, and the groupings show regions that could experience a notable increase in the risk of extreme heat.
Exposure to extreme heat can be uncomfortable at best, making it difficult to concentrate while studying or working. In the worst case it can be fatal. Heat is already the leading cause of climate-related deaths in the US, and more days above 90 degrees could increase the number of heat-related deaths and illnesses.
When the air temperature is above 90 degrees, the human body receives more heat than it can release. Sweating can further cool the body. But in hot and humid climates, sweat may not evaporate quickly enough, which can cause the body’s internal temperature to rise dangerously.
Children and older adults are at the greatest risk of developing heat-related health complications, especially if they have pre-existing conditions.
Although extreme heat poses the greatest threat in places unprepared for hot weather, people accustomed to warmer climates can still be overwhelmed by periods of extreme heat.
Adding more green spaces to urban areas, installing more air conditioning and building cooling centers can help people avoid the worst effects of heat, but not all communities have the funding to implement these solutions.
McCusker said that while people may be able to adapt to a rapidly warming country, an effective strategy to reduce the worst effects of warming is to reduce emissions.
“We showed that lives can be saved,” McCusker said.
What you need to know about the projections
USA TODAY used data from climate models that make two important assumptions. First, future population and economic development will follow historical patterns. Second, a stringent climate policy will enable significant emissions reductions by 2100.
Scientists call this set of assumptions a “middle of the road” scenario for how social and economic changes could affect the way climate change unfolds.
Technically, the scenario is called SSP2-4.5 and is just one of many possible climate scenarios.
USA TODAY grouped counties with similar increases in warming into three categories.
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In approximately 1,100 provinces, the average annual temperature is expected to rise by 2.6 to 4.5 degrees.
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More than 1,600 provinces with an increase of 2.1 to 2.6 degrees could experience “moderate” warming.
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Only 517 provinces are likely to experience “minimal” warming: an increase in annual temperatures of 1.0 to 2.1 degrees.
These boundaries were chosen because they represent natural ‘breaks’ in the distribution of data.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Your Oklahoma county will be so much hotter by 2040, report says
