WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Conservative lawmakers in Poland’s parliament cheered Donald Trump’s victory and stood applauding as they chanted his name.
The prospect of a second Trump term has excited people on Central Europe’s right, who share his anti-immigrant views and disdain for international organizations.
But many others in a region close to the war in Ukraine are afraid. They worry that Trump could abandon Ukraine and force Kiev into a deal that would ultimately further embolden Russia or reduce the U.S. military presence in Europe.
The change in Washington means that Europe will have to invest more in its security and defense instead of relying on the US protective shield as it has done for decades, argues Michał Baranowski, director of Warsaw-based GMF East, part of Germany’s Marshall Fund think tank.
“We Europeans – Poles and French and British and preferably also Germany – must go one step further,” Baranowski said. “Only by acting do we have a chance to avoid the worst scenarios, both a bad deal in Ukraine and perhaps a reduction in American involvement in Europe.”
Poland, the Baltic states and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe were under Moscow’s control during the Cold War. When that era ended in 1989, they were freed to turn to the West. They never want to become satellites of Moscow again.
Now NATO members are concerned that Trump could end a decades-long commitment to securing peace in Europe in his second term. Just this week, a missile defense base was inaugurated in northern Poland – the culmination of years of planning by Republican and Democratic administrations. Polish officials expressed hope that this was a sign that American commitment to the region would continue.
“The whole world will see clearly that this is no longer Russia’s area of interest,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said.
Trump has a long history of disparaging NATO, and former administration officials say he has repeatedly threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance.
His allies have described that as blunder or tough negotiating tactics that have pushed other European allies to take more responsibility, and argue that Trump has not abandoned NATO.
In just a few days, the change in Washington has changed the dynamics of Poland’s presidential campaign ahead of elections next spring. Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, a former defense minister with ties to Washington, entered the fray to be the candidate for centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s party, challenging old favorite Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. out.
Sikorski argues that his experience makes him the better choice for this time. His opponents claim that the anti-Trump views of his wife, American writer Anne Applebaum, could cause complications for Trump’s incoming administration.
The region is now holding its collective breath to see what a second Trump presidency will bring.
Officials in Poland and the Baltic states have emphasized their high defense spending – relative to their total economic output – in their congratulations to Trump.
Kersti Kaljulaid, the president of Estonia during Trump’s first term, told Estonian public broadcaster ERR that Estonians, Poles and others in Eastern Europe have previously found ways to reach Trump, “and I think this skill is something that we still have today.”
Everyone is now watching to see whether Trump will make a deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, as he has promised. It is a matter of existential importance because any agreement is expected to profoundly shape security in the region for years and decades to come.
The biggest fear would be a deal that gives Russia significant Ukrainian territory, rewards President Vladimir Putin’s violation of international law and allows Moscow to rebuild its military strength.
Poland’s Tusk has stressed that no deal should be made over the heads of Ukraine and the countries in the region that will be affected.
“There is no doubt that the new political landscape poses a serious challenge for everyone,” Tusk said on Saturday.
Tusk congratulated Trump last week, striking a conciliatory tone after being critical in the past of a position seen by most Poles as overly friendly toward Putin.
Duda, a conservative who has long admired Trump, said Wednesday that he does not believe Trump will abandon Ukraine after American taxpayers have already invested huge sums in Ukraine’s defense.
Trump is a “winner,” Duda said. “I can’t imagine he would allow Russia to destroy Ukraine.”
Trump’s victory energized Poles at an Independence Day march on Monday organized by nationalist groups and drawing tens of thousands of participants. Some there believe Trump’s friendly attitude toward Russia could help end the war in Ukraine.
“If he is pro-Russian and that means peace in the world, then I think that’s OK,” said Adrian Golik, a 23-year-old university student who joined the march with his brother and parents. They all have dual Polish-American citizenship and cast their votes for Trump in Illinois.
The leaders of Hungary and Slovakia – both seen as friendly to Trump and Putin – believe that Ukraine has already lost the battle and should not continue to receive Western military aid.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, while left-wing and known for his pro-Russian and anti-American views, welcomed Trump’s victory as “a defeat of liberal and progressivist ideas.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has called Trump “the man of peace” and predicted last week that the new administration would end US support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s large-scale invasion.
“One of the main messages of this election is that Europe needs to grow geopolitically and do so quickly, and that the era of outsourcing security is over,” said Baranowski, the analyst. “The stakes are very high: Europe can have influence. if we join forces and go one step further.”
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Justin Spike in Budapest, Hungary, Jari Tanner in Helsinki, Finland, and Karel Janicek in Prague contributed to this report.
