By Anna Hirtenstein and Alex Lawler
LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC+ is wary of a renewed surge in U.S. oil production when Donald Trump returns to the White House, delegates from the group said, as more U.S. oil would further erode OPEC+’s market share and undermine its efforts would hinder the producer group’s ability to support prices.
OPEC+ pumps about half the world’s oil and earlier this month postponed a plan to increase production until April. The group extended some of its supply cuts until the end of 2026 due to weak demand and booming production from the US and some other non-OPEC+ producers.
OPEC has a history of underestimating U.S. production gains, dating back to the beginning of the shale oil boom that made the United States the world’s largest oil producer. The United States now pumps out a fifth of the world’s supply.
Some delegates are now more optimistic about US oil and say the reason behind this is Trump. After an election that focused on the economy and the cost of living, Trump’s transition team put together a broad package to deregulate the energy sector.
“I think a return of Trump is good news for the oil industry, with possibly less stringent environmental policies,” said a representative of a US ally OPEC+ member.
“But we may see higher production in the United States, which is not good for us.”
Vienna-based OPEC did not respond to a request for comment.
A further increase in US production would hamper plans by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia to increase output from April 2025 without risking prices falling. A price drop would hurt OPEC+ countries, which depend on oil revenues.
The US president-elect wants to increase production, but for different reasons, after campaigning on promises to lower energy prices and inflation.
“This is a potentially difficult dynamic for both sides,” said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects. “OPEC+ has faced a major challenge from rising US production, which has reduced the group’s influence.”
US production will increase in 2025
OPEC+ is holding back 5.85 million barrels per day of production capacity after a series of cuts since 2022. In the period 2022-2024, total US oil production rose by 11% to 21.6 million barrels per day, according to OPEC’s own figures.
Just eleven years ago, the United States was pumping about 10 million barrels per day. OPEC+ production is equivalent to 48% of world supply, the lowest since its creation in 2016 with a market share of more than 55%, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency figures.
