For the second straight season, an electrifying Baltimore Orioles offense fell flat on its face in October. The 2024 Orioles were outscored in the AL East by the New York Yankees, managing just one run after two losses to Kansas City in the wild-card round.
This is still a healthy organization packed with talent, but the future has arrived at Camden Yards. The O’s gesture towards a hopeful future is no longer possible. It’s time for the Baby Birds to grow up.
Here are five questions that will define Baltimore’s offseason.
1. How much will the new ownership group spend?
From 1993 through 2023, the Orioles were owned by the Angelos family, whose austerity drew the ire of many Baltimore ball fans. So after private equity billionaire and native Baltimorean David Rubenstein bought the team in March 2024, there was optimism. During his first year as director, Rubenstein saw a notable increase in payroll, from $66 million at the end of 2023 to $103 million at the end of 2024.
But as he enters his first winter at the helm, Rubenstein’s thirst for money remains a mystery. The organization hasn’t handed out a multi-year free-agent contract since 2018, when starter Alex Cobb signed a four-year deal worth $57 million. We can almost guarantee that the cold spell will end this winter, but for whom and how much?
Orioles general manager Mike Elias has proven he can build a division winner on a shoestring budget, but having purchasing power would obviously make his job easier. Is Rubenstein willing to push the payroll above $150 million and move into the top half of the league? That question, more than any other, will determine how the Orioles try to build their 2025 roster.
2. Who will be the Opening Day starter?
There was no debate last season. That’s because the Orioles had just traded for Corbin Burnes, an ace of the no-doubt variety. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner took the rock on opening day and 31 more times in 2024, posting a 2.92 ERA along the way, the lowest mark by an O’s starter since Mike Mussina in 1992. Burnes closed his year in Charm City with a phenomenal eight-frame losing effort in Game 1 of the wild card round. It was everything the O’s paid for when they sent two highly touted prospects to Milwaukee for Burnes.
Now the 30-year-old right-hander is a free agent, one whose track record will net him a huge contract worth somewhere around $200 million. Reports indicate the Orioles are serious about trying to retain Burnes, but there’s a good chance the Birds will be outbid.
If that’s the case, someone else will have to take charge in March in Baltimore. Zach Eflin, whom the O’s acquired from Tampa Bay before the 2024 deadline, is the internal leader, with young flamethrower Grayson Rodriguez right behind him. Or the Orioles could start shopping for a non-Burnes free-agent frontline arm like Max Fried or Blake Snell. ESPN’s Jeff Passan said on the Baseball Bar-B-Cast that he expects Baltimore to end up with an established pitcher like Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler or Shane Bieber in the short term.
3. How does Baltimore plan to replace Anthony Santander and his 44 home runs?
Nearly 19% of the Orioles’ long balls in 2024 were hit by the Venezuelan right fielder, who is now a free agent. Santander isn’t a complete player — he doesn’t hit for average, he chases at a high pace and plays a below-average outfield — but 44 taters don’t grow on trees, even in Idaho.
The Orioles could bring Santander back, but a reunion feels extremely unlikely. It’s outside Elias’ MO to drop big piles on a one-dimensional, 30-year-old corner outfielder when the club has a handful of tempting internal options. Heston Kjerstad, the No. 2 overall pick in 2020, seems the most likely choice. The 25-year-old was limited by injuries and a crowded outfield in ’24, but showed up well in 114 plate appearances. He has a history of performance in the upper minors and should be the right fielder in Baltimore on opening day.
Behind him is top candidate Coby Mayo. The 22-year-old was ruthlessly outmatched in a 46-PA major league taste in 2024, but his light tower power gives him a supersonic ceiling. Mayo has played exclusively at corner infield in his minor league career, but he isn’t great there and could see some time on the grass.
These two alone are unlikely to be an equal replacement for Santander’s production. The O’s will also count on a breakaway from second baseman Jackson Holliday, further improvements from left fielder Colton Cowser and a rebound from catcher Adley Rutschman to make up the difference.
4. How many new faces will join the line-up?
Baltimore’s 2024 season came to a dramatic end with a lethargic, embarrassing offensive performance at home against Kansas City. The Birds scored just one run in 18 innings. It was the second year in a row that Baltimore’s lineup looked unsettled and uncomfortable in a playoff atmosphere.
The team’s coaches for the past few seasons, Matt Borgschulte and Ryan Fuller, both left last month: Borgschulte to the Twins and Fuller to the White Sox. Former big league third baseman Cody Asche, who has been on the staff since 2023, will be the new hitting coach. He is joined by two new voices, former MLBer Tommy Joseph and former O’s minor league hitting coordinator Sherman Johnson.
Will that be enough? Or will the O’s be active in shuffling personnel? That’s unlikely, as Elias doesn’t seem like the type to overreact to five bad playoff performances. Baltimore has the fourth-best offense in the league as of early 2023, a fact that should lead to continuity over change.
5. Who will be the backup catcher, and what does that say about Adley Rutschman?
Rutschman, hailed as the face of Baltimore’s recent resurgence, was downright terrible in the second half of 2024, with a .555 OPS after July 2. It’s also notable that his offensive numbers were significantly better when he was DHing instead of catching. That Rutschman, the highly touted franchise catcher, started at DH for the club’s first playoff game feels … important.
James McCann, who was Baltimore’s No. 2 catcher the past two seasons, is a free agent. If the O’s bring him back, it’s reasonable to expect a similar timeshare. But if the Orioles choose to sign or trade for a more established secondary option, that could mean Rutschman sees even more time at DH. On the other hand, if the Orioles move on with the current backup on their roster, René Pinto, it could portend optimism about Rutschman’s ability to handle a heavier load. Baltimore’s current top prospect, Samuel Basallo, is also a catcher, albeit one whose bat far outpaces his glove.
Getting Rutschman right is arguably more important to Baltimore’s future than any other move the team could make this winter, a process that’s happening behind the scenes. But which catcher joins (or doesn’t join) the organization to back up Rutschman could provide clues as to how the Orioles will choose to deal with him going forward.