Florida Panthers fans may not be as numerous as some of the more historic NHL franchises, but they do exist. And since the franchise started playing in 1993, they’ve been waiting for a Stanley Cup win.
Just over a week ago, celebrating that franchise seemed like a certainty for the first time. The Panthers led the Stanley Cup Final 3-0, and we all know by now that this is close to a historic draw. And somehow, the Panthers fans who were preparing to celebrate their team’s first Stanley Cup victory are now sweating out Monday night’s Game 7 against the Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton won three straight games, including Game 5 in Florida, to force a winner-take-all game.
Also, bettors who had tickets for the Panthers to win it all at BetMGM are wondering what happened.
There are plenty of ways to illustrate how incredible it would be if the Panthers lost the Stanley Cup Final on Monday night, but a stroll through how the odds have shifted at BetMGM over the past nine days is as shocking as any .
Panthers were once big favorites
Here’s how the Panthers’ odds of winning the Stanley Cup have changed since the Stanley Cup Finals started:
Before Game 1: -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Before game 2: -250
Before game 3: -550
Before game 4: -3000
Before game 5: -1200
Before game 6: -350
Before Game 7: -110
When the Oilers and Panthers started Game 4 on June 15, Florida led the series 3-0 and you would have had to bet $3,000 to win $100. The implied probability of a win among -3000 favorites is 96.7%, which seemed low for a team leading 3-0 in a play-off series.
When the Stanley Cup odds for the season were first released, the Panthers were +1800 to win it all. When the playoffs started, they were +700. There wasn’t a lot of confidence in the Panthers – only 4.6% of bets were on Florida winning it all – but those with Panthers tickets must have been feeling really good about it after Florida won 3-0. And now those bets are 50/50. The Oilers and Panthers have matching odds of -110 to win Game 7 at BetMGM.
The history of the 3-0 series collapses
You’ll hear the history on the air, and maybe a lot about it after the game is over, but here’s a list of all the teams that have lost a series in the major American sports leagues after taking a 3-0 lead:
NBA: Never
MLB: 2004 ALCS, Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees
NHL: 1942 Stanley Cup Final, Toronto Maple Leafs over Detroit Red Wings
1975 Quarterfinals, New York Islanders vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
2010 Conference Semifinals, Philadelphia Flyers over Boston Bruins
First round 2014, Los Angeles Kings over San Jose Sharks
That’s it, five times over hundreds of postseasons. According to Yahoo Sports AM, teams that take a 3-0 lead in a series are 206-4 in the NHL, 157-0 in the NBA and 39-1 in the MLB. That’s a total of 402-4 before the Panthers took that 3-0 lead. And it’s only happened once in a championship round, all the way back in 1942, when there were only seven NHL teams.
So from a 99% historical trend, the Panthers are now looking to flip a coin to win the first Stanley Cup in franchise history. You may not know any dedicated Panthers fans, but if you do, wish them luck today. They may never recover from watching their team screw up this series.
