(Bloomberg) – Indian Prime Minister Narendra ModiThe party’s massive domestic agenda is in jeopardy after his party failed to win an outright majority in parliament for the first time in a decade, forcing it to work with a coalition of parties.
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Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has ruled with an absolute majority for the past decade and has advocated – and pushed through – laws that critics say have furthered divisive Hindu majority goals.
In 2019, the government scrapped the semi-autonomous status of Muslim-majority state Jammu and Kashmir and passed an amendment to the citizenship law that discriminates against Muslims. In January, Modi inaugurated a temple built on the ruins of a demolished mosque in Ayodhya. The destruction of the mosque sparked riots across India 30 years ago and helped propel the BJP onto the national stage.
While analysts and economists expect Modi to continue broadly pursuing the economic policy goals that defined his first decade in power, they say he may be forced to jettison many of the more controversial social policies his party pursued prior to the electoral setback.
A new parliament that takes office on Monday could provide an indication of whether these domestic policies are now in doubt or need to be reworked under a coalition government.
Uniform Civil Code
For years, the BJP has advocated replacing India’s religion-based laws with a uniform civil code. This would entail a non-religious set of rules governing matters such as marriage, inheritance and divorce. Modi and his party have long advocated a uniform code. They see that the current system allows non-Hindu communities – especially Muslims – to operate on their own terms, and a new code would likely ban many personal practices related to marriage and divorce.
In a test case, the BJP-led northern Indian state of Uttarakhand passed the code in its state assembly earlier this year. Successive governments have refrained from changing these laws for fear of angering voters of all faiths. It is likely that Modi’s key regional allies – all of whom have significant Muslim populations in their states – will shy away from siding with the BJP if they try to introduce the measure in the current parliament.
National Register of Citizens
A month before India’s elections started in April, the government introduced a faith-based law – the Citizenship (Amendment) Act – that fast-tracked citizenship rights for immigrants from neighboring countries, except for those who identify as Muslim.
The law was seen as a precursor to a proposed national citizenship register, which would require Indians to prove their citizenship. Amit Shah, who retained his position as home minister in Modi’s new cabinet, has previously pledged to carry out a nationwide exercise to root out illegal immigrants from neighboring countries such as Bangladesh, many of whom are Muslim.
In a country with low literacy and high levels of poverty, documentation is often difficult for many Indians to obtain, making citizenship more difficult to prove. Critics had feared that if the BJP had won a large majority – as many had predicted ahead of the polls – the government would likely have pursued the National Population Register. However, a coalition government will likely force Modi, in coordination with other state leaders, to negotiate any deal with his partners.
Military recruitment program
In 2022, the Modi government shifted the Indian Army’s recruitment policy to short-term jobs without pension benefits. The announcement of the plan sparked protests across the country as it further limited employment opportunities in a country already facing a serious jobs crisis. Under the plan, the recruits would train for six months and serve in the military for three and a half years, but would not be entitled to pensions or other benefits when they leave.
Leaders of two of the BJP’s affiliates in the eastern state of Bihar – which is also one of India’s poorest – have publicly called for a review of the policy. During the election campaign, scrapping the plan was one of the opposition’s main promises.
One nation, one election
The Modi government is keen to overhaul the country’s electoral system by holding simultaneous national and state elections. The government’s position is that simultaneous elections would reduce costs and improve efficiency. A government-constituted committee on the subject presented its report in March and recommended that the government implement a “One Nation One Election” strategy.
Currently, state polls are spread across the country’s five-year election cycle. For example, polls will be held in the key states of Maharashtra and Haryana later this year, just months after the country voted in national elections.
To implement the plan, the government would have to amend the constitution, a task made considerably more difficult if it governs with a coalition and against an opposition that is firmly against the proposal. Modi’s opponents have long feared that the BJP will use its national popularity to win concurrent state elections. Currently, off-cycle elections, spread over a five-year period, often allow local issues – and parties – to dominate voters’ preferences.
Census and demarcation
The last census in India took place in 2011. The next one, due to take place in 2021, was suspended due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Last year, Parliament passed a law requiring a census, followed by demarcation, after 2026.
The last demarcation exercise, or redistribution, took place in 2002, with subsequent governments changing course so as not to upset the current balance of seats in parliament.
Southern states, which have always lagged behind in seat distribution – given their lower population – expect the delimitation to further reduce their representation in India’s lower house, the Lok Sabha. The country’s populous northern states – including many BJP strongholds – would almost certainly see their share of parliamentarians increase.
A new census and political constituency reform will also pave the way for Modi to implement the Women’s Reservation Act, which reserves one-third of legislature seats for women.
Affirmative action
The Indian Constitution enshrines positive discrimination for socially and economically backward communities, including lower-caste Indians. A specific quota of government jobs and places in government-run educational institutions has been reserved for those at the lowest levels of the caste system under the policy.
Modi’s BJP lost support among lower-caste Hindus in the last elections, with many of them voting for caste-based parties, especially in some key northern states.
In TV interviews and election rallies, Modi accused the opposition of exploiting divisions over the caste system to influence voters and repeatedly assured the country that the BJP would not scrap affirmative action policies. He also emphasized that the BJP would never take affirmative action on the basis of religion, especially against Muslims.
Modi’s ally, the Telugu Desam Party, does focus on a religion-based affirmative action program where it rules in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh – making it an issue where the BJP is likely to be at odds with a much-needed ally.
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