Normally, NFL Defensive Player of the Year is determined to some extent by sacks. That’s the statistic that gets voters’ attention.
Patrick Surtain II has been so good at cornerback for the Denver Broncos that it might be hard to deny the award.
The gambling market has shifted to Surtain. Surtain has taken over as the favorite for DPOY at BetMGM and it’s a pretty big lead over TJ Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Surtain has been a superstar for a Broncos defense that is one win out of a playoff berth. It’s not unprecedented, but it’s rare for a cornerback to win Defensive Player of the Year. Given Surtain’s fantastic play over the course of the season, he would be a good pick for the award even if he doesn’t have any sacks.
Patrick Surtain II is the new DPOY favorite
Watt was the favorite for most of the second half of the season, but that has changed. And now Surtain has a big lead.
Surtain is -210 to win the award for the best defensive player in the NFL at BetMGM. Watt is in second place at +175. No other players are shorter than 18-to-1, making it a two-man race with Denver’s star corner having a clear advantage.
The argument for Surtain is pretty simple: he shuts down pretty much everyone he comes into contact with. Despite traveling with most teams’ No. 1 receivers, Surtain has allowed 33 catches for 279 yards all season, according to Next Gen Stats. The passer rating for opposing quarterbacks when targeted is 56. The worst passer rating of any quarterback this season, with over 200 attempts, is Anthony Richardson at 61.6. That means when QBs target Surtain, they essentially become the worst passer in the NFL based on his allowed rating in coverage.
Here’s another metric that shows Surtain’s dominance: In Next Gen Stats’ EPA coverage (expected points added), Surtain’s score is -25.6 in coverage. That’s the best of any cornerback with at least 400 coverage stats. For those who like Pro Football Focus, Surtain is the highest-rated cornerback in the NFL this season.
Award winners often need a signature highlight, and Surtain played a big role this season. In Week 5, the Broncos trailed the Las Vegas Raiders 10-3, and the Raiders were driving when Surtain had a 100-yard pick-6.
All season long, Surtain has been a stalwart and the best player on a team that is 9-7 and needs one more win to secure a playoff spot. He could get a major award to prove his excellence, and it would be deserved.
Surtain would win in the 7th corner
It’s tough for a cornerback to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. When a cornerback is having an excellent season, it usually means he doesn’t get targeted for most of the game. It’s hard to quantify that, although it’s getting better with advanced metrics.
Usually pass rushers win. Another Broncos cornerback, Champ Bailey, had a near-perfect 2006 season but lost DPOY to Jason Taylor, who had 13.5 sacks. That’s an example of how angles are belittled. However, there have been six cornerbacks who have achieved the victory. The most recent was Stephon Gilmore in 2019. Mel Blount (1975), Lester Hayes (1980), Rod Woodson (1993), Deion Sanders (1994) and Charles Woodson (2009) were the others.
The movement towards Surtain received a boost last week. He guarded Cincinnati Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who is on pace to win the NFL’s receiving triple crown, on 43 of 56 coverage snaps. Chase had just three catches for 27 yards when covered by Surtain, via Benjamin Solak of ESPN. Surtain didn’t have an interception or splash play, but that’s the kind of great performance that should be rewarded.
Watt is a great player and has had another great season. But Surtain’s dominance is worthy of the NFL’s highest defensive award.
