More Maui residents left after the devastating 2023 Maui wildfires and even fewer came to the island, reducing the island’s population by more than 1,000 residents and causing an estimated $50 million in annual revenue losses to the economy of Hawaii.
New data collected as a result of a partnership between the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization and the state Department of Taxation showed that at least 430 to 510 Maui residents affected by the wildfires have left the state, and about 370 fewer people have moved. to Maui from out of state than expected.
Baybars Karacaovali, an economist at the Department of Revenue, said he worked with UHERO assistant professor Dylan Moore to analyze confidential 2023 tax data internally. The pair sought to determine the long-term effects of the disaster, which killed at least 102 people, destroyed more than 2,000 homes and buildings and caused a decline in tourism and the broader economy.
Their research found that about 63 to 64 percent of the population loss was due to increased outmigration, with some residents moving to other Hawaii counties and others leaving the state entirely. Declining immigration compounded the impact.
From an economic perspective, they say the data is useful because it provides a more complete picture of the toll the fire has taken on state revenues. The loss of $50 million in annual income for the state as a whole is estimated to have reduced Hawaii’s tax collections by more than $3 million per year and will also reduce the state’s general excise taxes and other economic activities that support employment.
Karacaovali said the Department of Revenue is responsible for considering the revenue implications of any legislation under discussion.
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“One of the recent things on the agenda is the tax credit for wildfire survivors, so with this detailed data we can identify the potential cost of this tax credit,” he said.
Moore said colleagues also wanted the data for their predictions because “population matters.”
“The fire is of course a more extreme case of someone ultimately being forced to leave, but it seems to me that it touches on some of the same concerns that people here have about the challenges of staying in Hawaii in general.” he said. “I think it would be important everywhere because of potential losses in economic activity, because of potential losses in tax revenue. … People around the world are concerned about people being driven from their homes, but perhaps those concerns are felt even more deeply here than in other places.”
Moore said another key takeaway is that “there are still a lot of fire-affected people in Maui,” which “suggests there is an opportunity to get them to stay.” And so I think that makes it all the more important to get to the bottom of some of the housing issues that Maui and the state as a whole are facing.
He said he did not know whether fire-induced population changes had peaked in Maui, but that evidence from fires on the mainland suggests the outmigration effect generally occurs within the first two years.
“We may be at the peak or midpoint, but I don’t expect that to happen for the next three to five years,” Moore said.
One in five fire-affected households is seriously considering leaving Maui, according to a survey by the Hawai ‘i State Rural Health Association.
Housing shortages, job losses and emotional stress are among the top issues Maui fire survivors continue to face.
Moore referred to Maui’s population data as a preliminary estimate and said limitations in relying on 2023 state tax returns to track migration indicate the actual impact could be even greater. For example, more than 600 displaced households that filed taxes before the fires have not filed tax returns since, and others never filed tax returns between 2021 and 2023.
“It’s not a perfect measure, but it’s a useful measure,” he said.
Impact of the Maui Wildfires on the Population One study analyzed 5,089 people living in homes deemed unsafe due to fire damage. – 1,420 residents moved within the Lahaina zip code (e.g. West Maui). – 1,058 residents moved elsewhere on Maui. – 369 residents left Maui in total, including 242 who left the state and 127 who moved to other counties in Hawaii. – 370 fewer people moved to Maui from out of state.
Source: UHERO, State Department of Revenue
