A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on Monday and possibly become a hurricane before reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast midweek.
The storm, called Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, is about 300 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and is moving north-northwest. It is expected to move off the northern Gulf of Mexico coast through Tuesday and approach the Louisiana coastline and over Texas on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said in an early warning Monday.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for northeastern Mexico and southern Texas.
The hurricane center said potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to produce heavy rains and flash flooding along the coast of northeastern Mexico, southern Texas, southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Thursday morning.
While it’s too early to predict the exact location of impact, “the storm’s potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds is increasing for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastlines beginning Tuesday evening,” the weather service said. So far this 2024 Atlantic storm season, which began in June and ends Nov. 30, there have been five named storms, three of which became hurricanes.
August’s tropical cyclone activity was “slightly below normal” in terms of the number of named storms, the hurricane center said. Debby made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region as a Category 1 hurricane before moving ashore and making landfall again as a tropical storm in South Carolina in early August, while Ernesto became a Category 1 hurricane as it passed over Bermuda in mid-August.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had forecast above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year, with a total of 17 to 25 named storms — defined by winds of 39 mph or higher — predicted, with eight to 13 hurricanes. The above-normal activity was predicted due to near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, La Niña conditions in the Pacific, weaker Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear.
The next storm will be called Francine.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
