Let Ukraine use Western weapons to attack targets in Russia.
That message, long a priority for Kiev and its fiercest supporters, is now being voiced by a growing number of Western leaders. The United States has so far remained unmoved by this pressure, putting it at odds with its allies — and in the company of the Kremlin, which has warned against such a move.
But there are signs that this could soon change.
Debate within the Biden administration over the issue is ongoing, and some top officials are willing to lift restrictions on how Ukraine uses weapons supplied by Washington, two sources with knowledge of the matter told NBC News.
That debate has gained urgency since Russia launched a new cross-border offensive in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region earlier this month, and Kiev has warned it could also gather troops for a new incursion into neighboring Sumy.
Ukraine feels handicapped and argues that restrictions on the use of weapons supplied by the West have given Moscow an unfair advantage.
Russia “can use the military infrastructure on its territory for the war against Ukraine without any obstacles,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a researcher at the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies, a government research group.
“As a result, there is a powerful asymmetry,” Bielieskov, based in Kiev, told NBC News on Wednesday. “This has been talked about for a long time. It’s just that the Russian offensive in the Kharkov region has clearly shown this.”
The new urgency from Kiev, which is still awaiting crucial U.S. military aid, has led a growing list of Western officials to support the idea of lifting restrictions on hitting targets in Russia.
For much of the war, Kiev’s partners have drawn a clear red line on letting Ukraine use the weapons they supply on Russian soil, fearing an escalation from the Kremlin that could turn the conflict into World War III.
The Biden administration has been consistent in this position, perhaps concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could retaliate using nuclear weapons – which he has frequently threatened during the conflict.
But now that Ukraine is outnumbered, outgunned and in the background, Kiev has publicly called on its allies to ease their restrictions.
And it seems to work.
French President Emmanuel Macron became the latest high-profile backer of the idea on Tuesday. He suggested that Ukraine be allowed to hit military targets inside Russia from which missiles were fired into Ukrainian territory, an apparent compromise position.
He was joined by German leader Olaf Scholz, who had opposed the idea but agreed to the concept on Tuesday.
It comes amid repeated pleas from NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg to let Ukraine use Western-supplied weapons to hit targets in Russia, saying failure to do so will hinder Kiev’s ability to “defend itself” . It is a view shared by a number of European members of the alliance, including Britain, Sweden and Poland.
In previous debates within the Biden administration over how far to go in arming Ukraine, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and CIA Director William Burns have taken a bolder stance, supporting the delivery of longer-range missiles and other weapons — and often prevailed after calls from lawmakers and European governments.
And on Wednesday, Blinken also seemed to leave room for a change on this point.
“We have not encouraged or enabled strikes outside Ukraine. Ukraine, as I have said before, must make its own decisions on how best to defend itself effectively,” he said during a trip to Europe, where a NATO meeting will also take place on Thursday. A “hallmark” of U.S. support for Ukraine, he said, “has been accommodation.”
“As circumstances have changed, as the battlefield has changed, as what Russia is doing has changed,” Blinken added. “We have also adapted and adapted and I am confident we will continue to do so.”
The Kremlin has tried to fend off the move, with Putin warning European NATO states on Tuesday that they were playing with fire and risking a “global conflict.”
Moscow recently organized exercises to simulate the use of tactical nuclear weapons, in a likely signal to the West against deeper involvement in Ukraine.
The risk of escalation appears to be precisely what has kept Biden reluctant to allow the use of American weapons on Russian soil, said Christopher Tuck, an expert in conflict and security at King’s College London.
“Putin’s comments should be seen in this light: he is trying to feed the fears of those who believe that crossing the US red line would take NATO’s relationship with Russia into a new and dangerous phase,” Tuck said.
It is clear from the growing frustration in Ukraine that the country will not violate the ban unless the US softens its position.
“We cannot, and this is a fact, risk the support of our partners,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday. “That is why we do not use the weapons of our partners on the territory of the Russian Federation. And we appeal: give us the opportunity to take revenge on their forces.”
His comments came after a group of lawmakers from both parties last week publicly urged the White House to give Kiev the green light.
“Ukrainians have failed to defend themselves because of the government’s current policies. It is essential that the Biden administration provides Ukraine’s military leaders with the ability to conduct a full spectrum of operations necessary to respond to Russia’s unprovoked attack on their sovereign country,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
But the Biden administration’s fears could be exacerbated by Ukraine’s increasingly daring use of its own weapons, mostly drones, to attack strategic targets deep inside Russia, such as oil refineries.
A Ukrainian drone on Sunday targeted a long-range radar deep in Russia that is part of the country’s ballistic missile early warning system, a Ukrainian intelligence official told NBC News. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to release details of the attack, which appeared to be the second in a week against infrastructure used by Moscow to monitor Ukraine’s military activities.
Although the U.S. will likely eventually lift restrictions on Russia’s use of its weapons, Tuck said, Ukraine should be careful about the types of targets it attacks and avoid causing civilian casualties.
It is also important to put any U.S. decision into perspective, he added.
“Russian forces have been making slow progress in Kharkiv Oblast, so it is likely that a US decision would be timely to make a militarily useful contribution to the fight there,” Tuck said. “But it is not a decision that will change the course of the war.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
