(Bloomberg) — At the family’s plum orchard in the rolling hills northwest of Chisinau, Moldova’s capital, it’s easy to see why Zinaida Plamadeala is keen to ensure her country stays on the path to European integration.
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The company she runs with her brother, PDG Fruct, sells almost all of its products to the European Union, which Moldova is in talks to join. Plamadeala, 33, now hopes enough of her compatriots will back future membership in a crucial referendum on October 20.
“We are a small country that needs to be part of something bigger, and joining the EU one day is the only way for us,” Plamadeala said as she sorted export orders on a sunny early autumn day. “If we deviate from that path, we would enter a period of enormous uncertainty.”
With a population of 2.6 million and one of the smallest economies in Europe, Moldova barely scores according to most EU statistics. But the small former Soviet republic, sandwiched between EU member Romania and war-torn Ukraine, is of great importance when it comes to securing the continent and countering the threat from Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
The EU is the largest investor in Moldova. It has helped the country break its dependence on Russian natural gas and build an electricity infrastructure since Putin’s invasion of his neighbor in February 2022.
A procession of European leaders passed through Chisinau to stand up for the EU ahead of the elections, culminating last week with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She said the bloc will allocate €1.8 billion ($2 billion) to support the country’s membership plan.
“A major milestone awaits the people of Moldova,” said Von der Leyen. “It is up to you, Moldovans, to decide. It is your sovereign choice what you do with your country and no one can interfere.”
The question is whether the lure of joining the world’s richest economic club can counter Moscow’s influence and increased security threats since the invasion of Ukraine. It is also one that is posed in other parts of the former Soviet sphere, such as in Georgia.
The Moldovan government and some of its Western allies say Russia is orchestrating a propaganda campaign and financing protests and disinformation. Polls show that Russia has the support of about a quarter of the population.
“We must capture this moment,” Igor Zaharov, European affairs adviser to President Maia Sandu, said in an interview at the country’s presidential palace. “This is not an expansion like the previous one. We cannot wait another five years for the government and parliament to possibly change. We have this very limited window of opportunity.”
Moldova was under Russia’s influence for decades after independence and ruled by pro-Moscow governments and presidents, with their opponents failing to move the country west. That ended with Sandu’s surprise victory in 2020, supported by the diaspora living in the EU.
The referendum is on whether Moldova’s constitution should be amended to enshrine in law the country’s goal of joining the EU. Sandu, who called the vote, will face pro-Russian opponent Alexandr Stoianoglo in the presidential elections on the same day.
Support for Sandu stood at 36% in a recent poll, compared to 10% for Stoianoglo, who is backed by the Socialist Party. About 63% of respondents were in favor of joining the EU. However, about 22% were still undecided.
Russia, which opposes Moldova’s western integration, has stepped up its efforts to influence the outcome, according to government and EU officials. The US, Britain and Canada accused Russia earlier this year of meddling in Moldova’s presidential elections.
Moscow has repeatedly dismissed the claims as “Russophobia,” which Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called “an essential part of the European Moldovan project, for which Moldovans are invited to vote in October.”
Dmitry Repetski, a 50-year-old engineer who campaigned for the Socialist Party, said Moldova needs access to the EU for business, but nothing else. He accused Sandu and her government of living in an “alternate reality.”
“We don’t want to be friends with the EU and fight against Russia,” Repetsky said as he distributed leaflets in Chisinau. Echoing Russian media, he said Moldova should reject what “they want to impose on us, such as being against the Orthodox Church, holding LGBT parades and having LGBT influence in schools.”
Moldova received the green light from the EU to open accession negotiations together with Ukraine. The country could join the EU in 2030 at the earliest, with the biggest tasks being tackling corruption, overhauling the judiciary and what Brussels calls the “deoligarchization” of the country. Unlike Ukraine, it has no ambition to join NATO, because its neutrality is stated in the constitution.
About 70% of national exports, mainly fruit and wine, already go to the EU, and the economy has returned to growth, partly driven by investment from the prospect of EU membership. Yet its gross domestic product per capita is still less than half that of Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest member.
Sandu’s decision to call a referendum before negotiations are completed is intended to make it more difficult for opponents to ever reverse the integration process. It’s a gamble: if the vote goes against her, the talks would be derailed.
“2030 feels both too early and too far away,” said Olga Rosca, Sandu’s foreign policy adviser. “Too early because there is still so much to achieve, and too far away because we face six long years of relentlessly fighting against Russian interference.”
In Chisinau, where about a third of Moldovans live, it is easy to forget the divisions that run through the country.
People sit in trendy cafes drinking coffee and tapping away on laptops connected to free Wi-Fi. The tree-lined boulevards show off modern architecture and adjacent grand Soviet-era buildings. Mixed in are pro-EU murals.
However, Moldova is also home to Transnistria, a breakaway region along the border with Ukraine that has been controlled by Russia for the past three decades in a simmering conflict. Then there is Gagauzia, an autonomous region south of Chisinau that Russia supports.
According to Viorel Cernauteanu, head of the Moldovan police, the government has been fighting Russian influence on its political process for years. Now it is more acute, he said.
“Right now, a few weeks before the EU referendum, these Russian destabilizing activities are at their peak,” Cernauteanu said in his cramped office in a Chisinau suburb. “The schemes are becoming more and more sophisticated.”
In front of him was a laptop showing the efforts of Russian special services and pro-Russian oligarchs to raise illicit funds and use them to spread disinformation, pay bribes, extort and organize protests.
Moldovan authorities said this month they uncovered a Russian-backed operation involving 130,000 civilians aimed at influencing the vote. In September alone, $15 million was transferred from Russia to activists of an electoral bloc linked to fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, to be used for disinformation and attacks on public institutions, Cernauteanu said.
In another incident, several people were arrested after throwing paint at government buildings, according to a police report in Chisinau. Investigation revealed that it was a group of twenty young people who had arrived from Moscow by plane via Turkey, police said.
Many Moldovans live next to the war in Ukraine and worry about what happens after the referendum – regardless of the outcome. As in the Baltic states, there is a deep-seated fear that they will be next after Ukraine.
“We have been facing Russian threats since World War II,” said Mariana Rufa, an economist who heads the European Business Association. Her mother was born in Siberia after her grandparents were exiled during the Soviet era. “Whatever happens, it can’t be worse. Except of course when there is physical aggression.”
–With help from Irina Vilcu.
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