Multiple weather fronts will push rain and snow into the Midwest, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast ahead of Thanksgiving week and some of the busiest travel days of the year.
Late Sunday, more than 25 million people were being monitored by National Weather Service watches and warnings regarding winter storm activity, including warnings about wind, flooding and freezing temperatures.
Rain and windy thunderstorms were forecast for parts of the central and southern Plains on Monday, and flood warnings covered 4 million people from northwest Texas to central Oklahoma, federal and NBC News forecasters said.
Severe weather in West Texas, including Abilene, Wichita Falls and Midland, was likely to bring 60 mph winds, thunderstorms and even a possible tornado, NBC News forecasters said.
The unstable weather was expected to eventually affect seven million people in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, NBC News meteorologists said.
Rain, snow expected this week
Starting in the Pacific Northwest, a “long-lasting atmospheric river” was expected to bring 2 inches of rain and at least 3 inches of snow to Oregon and Northern California starting Monday, federal forecasters and academic researchers said.
The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes in San Diego has developed an AR1 through AR5 system for predicting the strength of atmospheric rivers, similar to the system used for hurricanes. On Friday it said the incoming atmospheric river – with likely impacts from Tuesday to Friday – would likely arrive as an AR3 or AR4 level phenomenon, indicating strong to extreme precipitation.
The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center said the overhead precipitation stream would bring a chance of snow to parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming after it leaves the Pacific Northwest.
Waves of low pressure were expected to follow and spread into the Midwest, Southeast and Northeast after the initial atmospheric river, drawing in colder air and producing some snow the weekend leading up to Thanksgiving week precedes, they said.
A higher-level low-pressure system was forecast to develop over the Great Lakes and the Northeast during the second half of this week, according to the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center.
The system would lower temperatures and block any warm fronts, the report said.
“This will result in cooler temperatures, cold rain from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast, and early season snow accumulation for the central Appalachians and the higher terrain of the Interior Northeast,” the center said in its latest forecast.
Cooler, wetter fronts were expected to hit the East Coast in the second half of this week, when rain and some accumulating snow are expected in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and the Northeast.
Federal forecasters said a surface cyclogenesis — a potentially major winter storm — could develop and spin over the mid-Atlantic and southern regions of New England, dropping temperatures by 10 degrees and bringing rain and some snow accumulation Wednesday and Thursday cause.
Snow could be limited to the interior and mountain ranges of the Northeast, federal forecasters said, but the snow would come amid drought and even wildfires that have so far characterized fall in places like New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
Forecasters said as much as 6 inches of snow was possible.
“Cold air aloft will be sufficient to support early season snow accumulation for the higher terrain near the Great Lakes and the interior Northeast, and especially for the central Appalachians,” the Weather Prediction Center said Sunday in his prediction.
Looking ahead to Thanksgiving
Federal forecasters often avoid forecasts lasting longer than seven days, but were confident that cooler temperatures, cold rain and high-altitude snow would arrive on the East Coast on the Sunday of the week marking the Thanksgiving holiday, Black Friday shopping and one of the busiest periods. of the year for travel.
According to the US Climate Prediction Center’s six- to 10-day weather forecasts, which extend into the first half of the holiday week, California, the Pacific Northwest, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and some states on the Great Lakes, such as Wisconsin and Michigan, “lean” in favor of above-average rainfall.
The San Francisco Bay Area is expected to likely receive more rain. The rest of the country is likely to receive normal or below-normal precipitation during that period, the forecast center said.
There are indications that Thanksgiving week will continue the post-pandemic trend of increased holiday travel. American Airlines said in a statement Thursday that it expects to set a record for the number of passengers served during the holiday season, with nearly 8.3 million expected.
The last high figure for travelers carried by American came last year, when an estimated nearly 6.5 million people flew on its planes and those of subsidiaries.
Similarly, the National Retail Foundation said Thursday that it expects a record for the number of shoppers expected to set foot in brick-and-mortar stores during the holiday week: 183 million.
It may be too early to tell whether brewing rain and snow systems will thwart travel and spending plans.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
