The Mets won’t make a bigger move this season — or perhaps for the rest of their franchise history — than the one they made when they signed Juan Soto to a 15-year deal for $765 million.
But while Soto transforms the franchise and the lineup, the Mets remain short in the starting rotation, with just four locks in what is expected to be a six-man staff.
If you squint, you can see serious upside for all four pitchers currently projected to be in the rotation — Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, Frankie MontasAnd David Peterson.
But you can also see concerns for both: Senga (coming back from a year lost to injury), Holmes (transition from reliever to starter), Montas (4.84 ERA in 2024) and Peterson (strong 2024, but inconsistent past).
Because of the above, the Mets absolutely need to add another legitimate starting pitcher, if not two.
And one of the pitchers they add should have the ability to pitch at the top of the rotation.
The Mets, by attacking the White Sox Garrett hook before he was traded to the Red Sox, have made it clear they are willing to trade top players this season on the right deal. Luckily for them, there are still many intriguing trading options available.
Here’s who should be New York’s top 10 starting pitchers, ranked…
10.Jack Flaherty
Free agent
With the free agent starting pitcher market taking off (for eight years). Max Friedfive years before Blake Snellthree years for a 35 year old Nathan Eovaldi), Flaherty – who is entering his age-29 season – appears well prepared to make money.
But while Flaherty has upside, as evidenced by his 2019 season with the Cardinals, he has been wildly inconsistent and beset by injuries throughout his eight-year career. Those injuries include shoulder issues that hampered him in 2021 and 2022.
On a short-term deal, Flaherty would be a smart bet. But the bet here is that someone will give him a four- or five-year contract.
9. Nick Pivetta
Free agent, qualifying offer attached
With Pivetta rejecting Boston’s qualifying offer, the Mets — who had already incurred a draft pick penalty by signing Soto — would lose even more 2025 draft pick capital if they sign Pivetta.
Pivetta has the swing and miss stuff and has been a workhorse, pitching 142.0 or more innings each of the last four seasons for the Red Sox. But he has never had an ERA below 4.00 and is prone to the home run ball, allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings during his eight-year career.
8. Jesus Luzardo
Marlins, trade candidate
Luzardo is entering his age-27 season, will make just $8.6 million in 2025 and has two years of team control left. He also has tantalizing upside, which he showed with Miami in 2022 and 2023.
But Luzardo had a rough 2024, pitching to a 5.00 ERA in 66.2 innings before a stress reaction in his lower back ended his season in August after an elbow injury hit him early.
Luzardo threw a career-high 178.2 innings in 2023, but has eclipsed 100.0 innings only twice in his career.
7. Luis Castillo
Sailors, trade candidate
The Mariners are listening to offers for Castillo, who is entering his age-32 season and has three years and $72.3 million remaining on his contract, which also includes a vesting option for the 2028 season based on innings pitched in 2027 thrown.
Castillo’s fastball and slider were very strong in 2024, via Baseball Savant, with an average velocity of 95.6 mph. And he’s as reliable as they come when it comes to taking the ball, throwing 150.1 innings or more in every full season since 2018.
There is some concern that Castillo could enter a recession; his ERA+ was 101 in 2024, after being 118 in 2023. But he was still good last season, with a 3.64 ERA (3.91 FIP) and 1.16 WHIP, while striking out 9.0 per nine. And given the money he’s owed, that probably wouldn’t require one of the Mets’ top prospects (Jet Williams, Drew Gilbert, Brandon Sproat, Ryan Clifford) to make a deal.
6. Sean Manaea
Free agent
Manaea was great for the Mets in 2024, pitching like an ace down the stretch after dropping his arm corner. After the season he expressed his sincere wish to be back.
The Mets are interested in reuniting with Manaea, who is entering his age-33 season. But it’s possible its market will get to a point that New York isn’t comfortable with. You may also wonder if he can repeat what he did at the end of 2023.
If a team offers Manaea five years, it’s very difficult to see a scenario where he’s back in New York. But if his contract is around $100 million for four seasons or a three-year deal with a higher average annual value (perhaps $85 million or so over three years), bringing back Manaea could make a lot of sense.
5. Walker Buhler
Free agent
To me, Buehler is easily the most intriguing MLB free agent pitcher this offseason.
Entering his age-30 season, Buehler — who was one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2018 to 2021 — could sign a two-year deal that includes an opt-out after the 2025 season. That makes the risk low and the reward incredibly high.
Buehler struggled during the regular season in 2024, in what was his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but he started to look like his vintage self during the Dodgers’ World Series run, as he closed things out in Game 5 at Yankee Stadium.
4. Dylan stops
Padres, trade candidate
Now that he’s a year out of free agency and owes about $13 million in what is his final season of arbitration, the Padres have reportedly made him available.
The right-hander may have consistency issues. Quit a year in which he had a 4.48 ERA (in 2023) between seasons in which he finished in the top four in Cy Young voting (2022 and 2024).
When he’s on, Cease is dynamic. He also posts having thrown 177.0 innings or more in each of the last three years. And he was great for San Diego last season, posting a 3.47 ERA (3.10 FIP) and 1.06 WHIP while striking out 224 batters in 189.1 innings — a rate of 10.6 per nine.
3. Framer Valdez
Astros, trade candidate
Like Cease, Valdez is a year away from free agency. And like San Diego, Houston has reportedly made Valdez available.
Valdez’s projected salary via arbitration is $18 million, making it heavier than Cease. But that obviously wouldn’t be a problem for the Mets. And if the Astros really do adapt on the fly (they also made a superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker available), the Mets should make a serious push for Valdez.
The 31-year-old has been one of the truly elite pitchers in baseball as of 2021, averaging over 190.0 innings pitched over the past three seasons.
2.Jared Jones
Pirates, trade candidate
Recently, before I saw the report that Pittsburgh had made Jones available, I scoffed at the idea that they could trade him. But if Jones can actually be acquired, every baseball team should be interested.
And he should be of utmost importance to the Mets, who have the pitching infrastructure to get the most out of the 23-year-old fireballer.
Jones will make less than $1 million in 2025 and won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2027, so the cost of acquiring him would be enormous. But it could be more than worth it for a pitcher with the ability that Jones possesses.
1. Roki Sasaki
International free agent
Because of his age (23), stuff (alien) and cost (almost nothing), every team in baseball will play for Sasaki, who can only sign one contract due to his age and international signing rules. minor league contract, and will be paid through his team’s IFA bonus pool.
Mets president of baseball operations David Sterns said during the Winter Meetings that New York’s first pitch for Sasaki was already on its way to him. Sasaki is expected to meet with teams in the coming weeks and sign with a number of teams in mid to late January.
With Sasaki set to sign so late, the Mets – and every other team – will have to view the potential addition of him as a bonus. But what a great bonus it will be for the team that lands him.
