As any fantasy manager or stock trader knows, predicting the future is hard. That’s why we rely on expert analysis to break down complex systems to their most easily understood metrics so we can gain a competitive edge. But even then, fantasy analysis often isn’t perfect.
In today’s episode, Matt Harmon is accompanied by Ben Gretch to discuss two of the most widely used prediction statistics in fantasy football: rankings and projections. How do fantasy analysts like us arrive at these statistics? In what situations should you read one versus the other? And in what situations are they completely useless?
Ben also explains the four ways fantasy analysis and human instincts consistently go wrong, and how to avoid those common pitfalls.
Towards the end of the show, the guys discuss two younger players out West whose disappointing 2023 campaigns have them undervalued this year: Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Javonte Williams. Then, they discuss a rookie wideout who is definitely worth a shot in a high-volume offensive situation.
(4:40) – How fantasy projections are made and how rankings differ
(25:30) – What are four things fantasy analysis gets wrong?
(1:01:15) – Underrated Situations: SEA’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba
(1:08:00) – Underrated Situations: DEN’s Javonte Williams
(1:12:20) – Rookies Worth a Dart: KC’s Xavier Worthy
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