Since Vice President Kamala Harris entered the presidential campaign trail three weeks ago, polls and campaign finance data have shown how the race has changed. She has come from behind to open a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in national polls and in several swing states, and she has raised far more money than he did last month.
New voter registration data in two swing states confirms that Harris’ candidacy has motivated potential Democratic voters.
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For most of the year, more people registered as Republicans than Democrats to vote in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, two key states where party registration is important and data is regularly released.
There was a big spike in GOP registrations in both states the week of July 14, during the Republican National Convention, which took place just days after Trump survived an assassination attempt. In Pennsylvania, more voters registered as Republican than in any week since 2020.
But the following Sunday, President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris. The week that followed saw a surge in Democratic registrations. For the first time this year, weekly Democratic registrations in North Carolina exceeded Republican registrations. In Pennsylvania, it was the largest Democratic margin in new registrations since late 2023.
Republican registrations in the two states remained high, perhaps reflecting continued goodwill toward Trump. But Democratic gains have offset that advantage.
In both states, the Democratic margin has now shrunk, but not completely.
It’s a small data point — a few thousand voters for each party each week. The opinions of newly registered voters also don’t necessarily reflect the preferences of the electorate at large. And a significant number of new voters in both North Carolina and Pennsylvania didn’t register with a party, so their votes in November may be harder to predict.
But there are positive signs for Democrats among independent voters. In North Carolina, registrations among young and female voters who had not declared a party rose in the week after Biden’s announcement. (In polls of swing states, Harris has a significant advantage among women and voters under 30.)
In North Carolina, women made up about 50% of new unaffiliated registrants this year. That share jumped to 55% in the week immediately after Biden withdrew. The share of registrants under 30 rose to 48% that week, up from about 43% in previous weeks.
First-time registrants tend to be younger and left-leaning, meaning Democrats have historically led in new voter registration. But since 2020, Republicans have done unusually well in registrations nationwide, according to data from L2, a nonpartisan voter data provider.
The share of new voters who register as Democratic has fallen in recent years in other states, such as Florida. And even in states where Democrats far outnumber Republicans in new registrations, such as New York and Maryland, the share of voters who register as Democrats has fallen.
The Democratic gains in Pennsylvania and North Carolina may or may not be permanent. But they are a bright spot for a party that has seen its success with new voters slipping away.
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