September 21 – Former state Rep. Rebecca Dow of Truth or Consequences packed up her belongings in January and moved minutes from the home she had lived in for years.
No, she didn’t downsize or move closer to work.
The move was political in nature, intended to help Dow regain her old seat in the legislature after a redistricting, or redrawing of political boundaries, pushed her into the constituency of fellow Republican Rep. Gail Armstrong of Magdalena.
“I didn’t leave my home,” Dow said Friday. “I left a home. District 38 is my home, and I did it because New Mexico desperately needs balance.”
The thrilling battle for District 38, likely the most competitive and closely watched legislative race of this year’s election cycle, is between Dow and new Democratic Rep. Tara Jaramillo.
Jaramillo said retaining the seat, which was previously held by a Republican for decades, is not just a priority for the Democratic Party, but priority number one.
“If you just look at the surrounding areas, Valencia County is red, Sierra is red, Catron is red [and then] “There I am, this little blue dot,” she said.
While every seat in the Legislature is up for election in November, the vast majority of legislative races are effectively decided. Sixty-four of the 112 seats in both chambers are uncontested, and others are so red or blue that there is no real chance they will flip. Democrats, who hold majorities in both the Senate and the House, are all but assured of retaining power.
But the hard-fought race between Dow and Jaramillo illustrates the drive by both Republicans and Democrats to retain — or flip — as many legislative seats as possible in the general election.
“I don’t know if the Democrats will turn things around. [seats in the Senate] “on the Democratic side,” said Senate Republican Leader Craig Brandt. “I think the Republican seats, as long as we have good races — and we have good candidates — we’ll keep what we have, and I think we have an opportunity to win three or four seats.”
To catch
In the Senate, Republicans see District 12 as the most winnable seat. Democrats called it the “sacrificial seat” in the 2021 redistricting after parts of Democratic-leaning Bernalillo County were moved to other districts while conservative parts of Sandoval County were added.
The seat became vacant after Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino, a Democrat from Albuquerque, decided not to seek another term after two decades in office, putting the district in play.
“They cut it into six pieces [in redistricting] and gave it to six Democratic-leaning districts to strengthen them,” Ortiz y Pino said in an interview last year.
Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block, a Republican running against Democrat Phillip Ramirez, said it’s a “completely different district” now and he predicts he will win.
“It’s a totally different area,” said Block, who is also seeking the Republican nomination for governor in 2022. “Most of the district is in Rio Rancho, which is where I currently represent on the commission. Everyone knows me there. I have the name recognition.”
Ramirez, who runs a small construction company, acknowledged that the race will be tough. But he said any competition is tough and he is working hard to win over voters.
“We’ll see who crosses the finish line as the winner,” he said.
Another seat Republicans hope to pick up in the Senate is District 28, after Sen. Siah Correa Hemphill, D-Silver City, dropped her re-election bid after the June primary.
The race pits former state Sen. Gabriel Ramos, a Democrat turned Republican, against Grant County Commission Chairman Chris Ponce, who was selected by the New Mexico Democratic Party’s State Central Committee to be on the ballot after Correa Hemphill withdrew from the race.
Ramos was one of five conservative Democrats who were targeted for discrimination and ousted in the 2020 primary after voting against repealing a 1969 law that criminalized abortion in New Mexico.
After Correa defeated Hemphill Ramos in the June 2020 primary with nearly 62% of the vote, Ramos changed parties.
“My values haven’t changed,” Ramos said last year after announcing he was running to win back the seat as a Republican. “What has changed is the divisive agenda of progressive politicians in Santa Fe.”
Another seat both parties believe is still up for grabs is District 21 after Sen. Mark Moores, the only Republican senator representing Albuquerque, decided not to seek re-election.
Republican Nicole Tobiassen, who is running against Democrat Athena Christodoulou, believes she can keep the seat in Republican hands.
“The race is going really well from our perspective, and I’m working super hard, and I feel like I’m going all out, so I have an obligation to keep this seat,” she said. “I think I would disappoint a lot of New Mexicans if I didn’t.”
Tobiassen, a former car rental company executive who now works as a business coach, said the Legislature needs a lawmaker with her experience and background.
“I’ve been coaching businesses all over the state for the last 16 years, and I think I’ve had a very unique perspective on what’s happening in New Mexico,” she said. “Our legislators, quite frankly, are missing the point. People are frustrated, and business owners here in New Mexico are primarily small businesses, they’re family-run, they’re multigenerational, they’re deeply rooted in their communities, and they care deeply about their employees. They’re struggling and they’re frustrated, and I thought, well, I can be frustrated and dissatisfied, or I can be part of the solution.”
Christodoulou, who ran unsuccessfully for the seat in 2020 and for House District 31 two years later, said the political climate with former President Donald Trump on the ballot boosts her chances. She said her experience as a retired U.S. Navy commander and engineer also makes her uniquely qualified.
“I’ve lived there for a while, so people know me and given the current political situation at the federal level, Democrats are very proud to come out and make sure we preserve our democracy,” she said.
Other competitive Senate races include District 9, where Democrat Cindy Nava is running against Republican and former Secretary of State candidate Audrey Trujillo, and District 29, where Democrat Tina Garcia is running against Republican Sen. Joshua Sanchez, who is running as an incumbent but in a district previously held by Senate Minority Leader Greg Baca of Belen.
Baca, who took office in 2017 after defeating then-Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez (D-Belen), announced earlier this year that he would not run for another term after the 30-day session.
In a joint statement, Senate President Pro Tem Mimi Stewart of Albuquerque and Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth of Santa Fe said Democrats have a “powerful, diverse group of candidates vying to retain or win back seats” across the state.
“New Mexicans have said time and again that MAGA’s extremism does not reflect our values,” the party said.
“At the NM Senate Democratic Caucus, we are committed to protecting democracy, growing an economy that works for everyone, and addressing the root causes of crime while holding criminals accountable,” they said. “We won’t let Republicans take away women’s reproductive rights, we won’t let them sell out the middle class to corporations and billionaires, and we won’t let them destroy our environment or our democracy.”
No stone is left unturned
In the House, the most competitive races include District 38 between Dow and Jaramillo, as well as the District 36 race between incumbent Rep. Nathan Small, D-Las Cruces, chairman of the powerful House Appropriations and Finance Committee, and Rep. Kimberly Skaggs, a Republican Party operative. Skaggs narrowly lost to Small by 408 votes in 2022.
“We absolutely have to consider the impact we have on people’s lives before we make decisions, and I don’t think that’s happening in Santa Fe,” she said.
House Speaker Javier Martínez (D-Albuquerque) predicts the battle between Small and Skaggs will be close.
“But I have to tell you, Chairman Small is an incredible leader,” Martinez said. “He’s someone who has really represented that district very well over the last few cycles and in his role as Chairman of House Appropriations, he’s really had the opportunity to deliver for communities across the state and his community in District 36.”
Martínez said the races where Democrats have “a very good chance” of winning seats currently held by Republicans include Districts 31 and 57, both in the Albuquerque area, where Republican resignations are taking office and where, on paper, there is a small Democratic majority.
Martinez said Democrats also hope to flip House District 39, which includes Catron, Grant and Hidalgo counties, blue. The seat is currently held by Rep. Luis Terrazas, a businessman, who is running against Democrat Gabrielle Begay, a teacher.
“She is an educator, a great leader in her community, with a lot of support from the local communities,” he said.
But the “highest competitive race” that Martínez is “watching very closely” is the one between Dow and Jaramillo.
“It’s going to be a hugely exciting race, but Tara is leaving no stone unturned, and neither are we,” Martinez said. “We’re working our hearts out to make sure she comes back to the Roundhouse.”
In the most recent fundraising period, more than two dozen Democratic lawmakers showered Jaramillo with $63,000 in campaign contributions — part of a concerted effort to keep the district blue.
However, Dow has maintained an edge in fundraising.
In a statement, House Minority Leader Rod Montoya, of Farmington, predicted that Republicans would gain ground in November.
“Last cycle, Republicans lost 10 House races by less than 5,000 votes — the total!” he said. “Since then, New Mexicans have seen dramatic increases in the cost of living, groceries, utilities and gas; not to mention violent crime, addiction and homelessness. Momentum is growing as voters are ready to hold elected Democrats accountable for their horrendous records.”
Leticia Muñoz, executive director of the Republican Party of New Mexico, agreed.
“New Mexicans are tired of hearing Democratic Party promises during the election season, only to see them take the opposite actions after they’re elected, leaving our state worse off year after year,” she said. “All Republican candidates are working hard to engage voters in their districts on the issues that matter most, and we’re very close to winning more seats this year.”
Follow Daniel J. Chacón on Twitter @danieljchacon.
