MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Sensing an opportunity in swing state Wisconsin, Republicans are pouring money into the effort to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in that state’s closely watched Senate race.
Democrats have also stepped up their efforts in the fight, which remains crucial to their hopes of retaining their majority in the Senate. They maintain an overall spending advantage and emphasize that the fight will become increasingly tough as Election Day approaches.
A loss in Wisconsin against Republican candidate Eric Hovde would make maintaining the Democrats’ majority extremely difficult in a national landscape in which Republicans have far fewer seats to defend this year.
That prospect has Republicans optimistic about the race. “It’s pretty clearly a jump ball at this point,” said Republican strategist Alec Zimmerman, who worked on Sen. Ron Johnson’s winning 2022 campaign.
Democrats have outspent Republicans on ads in the Wisconsin Senate race since Monday, $93 million to $69 million, according to AdImpact, which tracks campaign ad spending. Baldwin’s campaign accounts for more than a third of all Democratic ad spending, while Hovde relies more on outside groups.
But Republicans have invested more heavily than Democrats in advertising over time, with $21 million in spots reserved between Monday and Nov. 5, compared to $15 million in spots reserved by Democrats. Nearly two-thirds of the Republican Party’s new spending comes from the Senate Leadership Fund, the political action committee headed by the Senate Minority Leader. Mitch McConnellwhich has reserved $13.1 million in ad spots.
“The momentum is on my side,” Hovde said at a forum in Milwaukee last week. “I intend to win this race. I’m going to win this race because I stay focused on what’s important.”
Baldwin, who campaigned in western Wisconsin on Monday with vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, said in a statement to The Associated Press that she is not surprised by the state of the race.
“We always knew the race was going to be more exciting,” Baldwin said. “That’s why I’ve worked every day to rally the people of Wisconsin behind my campaign. … I am confident we have the strength, momentum and message to win next month.
Democratic strategist Melissa Baldauff said Hovde has strengthened his support among the Republican base and that he has the money to get his message across, including outside financing. Hovde has loaned the campaign at least $13 million of his own money to spend on the race.
To win, Baldwin just has to be herself and tout her record, Baldauff said.
“That’s one of her strengths and one of the things that sets this race apart from other Senate races across the country,” Baldauff said. “The fact that people know who she is, that she does what she says she’s going to do and that she shows up all over Wisconsin.”
Zimmerman, the Republican strategist, said Baldwin faces the toughest political circumstances of any of her three races. Hovde has the advantage on issues like the economy and immigration and must stay focused on the cases he wants to win, Zimmerman said.
“Wisconsin has always been on the razor’s edge,” Zimmerman said. “Fifty-fifty elections are the rule here, and she has always been the exception. What you see here is a return to that principle.”
Four of the past six presidential elections were decided by less than one percentage point in Wisconsin. The U.S. Senate races were not that close: Baldwin won by nearly six points in her first race in 2012 and by nearly 11 points in 2018. But in 2022, Johnson won a third term by just one point.
The Baldwin race is crucial for Democrats who are defending 23 Senate seats, including three held by independents who are aligned with Democrats clinging to a 51-49 majority. That’s compared to just 11 seats that Republicans hope to keep in their column.
Baldwin has said she is using the same strategy as her previous campaigns, traveling to both red and blue parts of the state to tout her record fighting for Wisconsin’s farmers and middle class. This week alone, she planned to be at every major media market in the state.
To bolster her bipartisan bona fides, Baldwin won the endorsement of the conservative Wisconsin Farm Bureau for her work on behalf of the state’s agriculture and dairy industries, making her the first Democratic candidate in a statewide race to do so in more than two decades. year won.
Baldwin has attacked Hovde as an outrageous millionaire who wants to cut Social Security and Medicare, end the Affordable Care Act and support a national abortion ban. Advertisements focused on Hovde’s role as CEO of H Bancorp and its main subsidiary, Utah-based Sunwest Bank, and the fact that he owns a $7 million estate in Laguna Beach, California.
Hovde was born in Madison, has a home there and insists he has never been a full-time resident of California.
She also called him out on past statements opposing abortion rights and his support for reducing the federal budget to 2019 levels, which Democrats say will result in massive cuts to popular programs like social security. security, Medicare, Medicaid and veterans benefits.
Hovde says Baldwin has distorted his views. On Social Security, for example, Hovde said he only supports raising the retirement age to receive benefits for people in their 40s or younger, and that he does not want to take away benefits for the elderly, as a commercial on Baldwin TV claims.
Hovde has softened his stance on abortion since his first election to the Senate in 2012, which Baldwin used in an ad. Hovde now says he would not vote for a federal ban and that the issue should be left to the states.
Hovde blasts Baldwin, who has been elected for nearly 40 years, as a career politician who hasn’t done enough to secure the border or help the economy. He accuses her of dodging voters by agreeing to just one debate, which will be broadcast live on Friday evening.
“I remain focused on interacting with everyone and answering their questions,” Hovde said last week, criticizing Baldwin for weighing in on only one debate. “I will never run away from difficult questions.”
If Hovde wins, Wisconsin will be represented by two Republicans in the Senate for the first time since 1957. But Republicans would have to overcome the Democratic momentum that has led their candidates to win fourteen of the past seventeen statewide elections.
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Polling Editor Amelia Thomson DeVeaux and Leah Askarinam of the AP’s Decision Desk contributed from Washington.
