Republicans are expected to win control of the U.S. Senate in a huge blow to Democrats who have been dragged down by perceptions of the economy and an unpopular incumbent in the White House.
At least two states will have a new Republican senator — Jim Justice in West Virginia and Bernie Moreno in Ohio. A handful of other races are still too close to call, but the GOP majority could still grow to 55 seats in the upper chamber.
With a new majority, Republicans have a chance to expand Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts when they expire at the end of next year and appoint more conservatives to the federal judiciary, including the Supreme Court. They will also have a huge influence on what the cabinet and administration of the next president will look like.
“Voters are trusting Senate Republicans with an extraordinary opportunity,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said in a statement. “As a new Republican Senate majority, our focus will be to pass an agenda that reflects America’s priorities – lower prices, less spending, secure borders and American energy dominance.”
The change in power is a huge victory for Montana Republican Senator Steve Daines, who, as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, moved early on to align with Trump and ensure missteps cost the party a majority in the 2022 midterms.
Still, the GOP has long been favored to win a majority this year because of the number of swing state incumbent Democrats up for reelection and the challenging political environment for their party amid voter dissatisfaction over the cost of living, immigration and the record of President Joe Biden in office. Alarmed by his crashing polls after a devastating debate with Donald Trump in July, Democrats pushed Biden out of the race and coalesced around Kamala Harris. But the vice president struggled to distance herself from her boss and gave Republican candidates plenty of fodder for attack ads in the final months of the race.
The deck this cycle was also heavily stacked against Democrats, who held a narrow 51-49 majority and played defense in Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Republicans have also had luck with the now independent West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s decision to retire, paving the way for an easy victory in the race to replace him with Justice, the GOP governor of West Virginia.
Republicans spent hundreds of millions of dollars to oust Democratic incumbents in Montana and Ohio, two red states where Trump is overwhelmingly popular. Data from political ad tracking company Adimpact has projected that more than $2.5 billion was spent on ads in Senate races this campaign cycle, slightly more than the 2022 total. The bulk of the spending – More than $1 billion -Came down to just three states: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana.
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) lost his bid for re-election Tuesday, while Sen. Jon Tester (D-Montana) is struggling in his bid for re-election against Republican Tim Sheehy.
Republicans went all out on reports about immigration, accusing Democrats of not doing enough to improve security at the U.S.-Mexico border. Their advertisements often incited fear-mongering, falsely casting migrants seeking to enter the U.S. as an “invasion” of the country. High inflation was another big theme in GOP ads, as were trans issues. The party spend tens of millions of dollarsto ads attacking Democrats for support for transgender athletes and gender-affirming care for children.
Democrats, meanwhile, focused much of their messaging on the fight for reproductive rights and the threat of a national abortion ban under a GOP-controlled Senate, a playbook that proved effective in the 2022 midterm elections. They opposed GOP ads on immigration by targeting Republicans fall for kill A bipartisan bill ordered by Trump earlier this year that would have provided more security at the border. And she touted their long list of legislative achievements, including investments in infrastructure and manufacturing, and lowering the cost of some prescription drugs, such as insulin.
What Democrats didn’t feature in campaign ads: Biden, who opted not to seek re-election in the summer after questions surfaced about his health and stamina. His decision to endorse Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee gave his party a fighting chance in November, but his ‘waste” Comments late in the race also handed Republican candidates a political gift.
Both parties sought upset victories in the Senate race. Democrats made a play for Texas and Florida, hoping to defeat the incumbent Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott to fire. They also cheered on independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn, who gave GOP Sen. Deb Fischer a bang in Ruby-Red Nebraska but will likely lose of all places. Meanwhile, former Maryland Gov. campaign Larry Hogan (R) against Democrat Angela Alsobrooks for the seat has caused consternation among Democrats and forced them to spend resources in the blue Democratic stronghold. But Alsobrooks easily won the race.
The GOP Senate majority will be led by a new face next year. Mitch McConnell, the longest-serving Senate leader in history, is stepping down from his position. Republicans will choose his replacement in a closed-door election next week from a list of three candidates: Senate Minority Whip John Thune (S.D.), Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) and Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.).
See full Senate election results here.
