WASHINGTON — Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives by the narrowest of margins, NBC News predicted Wednesday, giving newly elected President Donald Trump and his party all the levers of power in Washington.
A Republican-controlled Congress will allow Trump to quickly fill his Cabinet and other top government positions and advance his agenda for at least the next two years, although Democrats will have some influence with slim majorities in the House of Deputies and the Senate.
Republicans’ razor-thin victory in the House of Representatives was propelled by Trump’s decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in both the Electoral College and the popular vote. It is a blow to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and the Democrats, who now have virtually no control over Trump, a man they warned during the campaign is a threat to democracy, an extremist and a fascist.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Republicans have flipped seven seats, while Democrats have flipped six seats, for a net Republican Party gain of just one seat. So far, Republicans have won the 218 seats needed to secure a majority of Democrats’ 208 seats. Last week, Republicans flipped three Democratic Senate seats to gain control of the Senate.
“It’s a beautiful morning in Washington. It’s a new day in America,” said celebratory speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., on the steps of the Capitol, flanked by his leadership team, as the House returned to Washington on Tuesday. “The sun is shining, and that is a reflection of how we are all feeling.”
How the Republicans Won
Democrats were confident they were well positioned to regain the majority they had lost just two years earlier. They needed a net gain of just four seats to flip control of the House of Representatives, as Republicans now control 220 seats to Democrats’ 212 – one of the smallest majorities in modern history.
But the two parties have essentially fought for a tie in the House of Representatives, maintaining a status quo that favors Republicans.
In New York, Democrats have managed to unseat a trio of vulnerable freshman incumbent Republicans: Rep. Brandon Williams in the Syracuse region, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito on Long Island, and Rep. Marc Molinaro, whose district includes parts of the Hudson. Valley and the Catskills. They were among the 18 GOP House districts that President Joe Biden carried in 2020.
Democratic challenger George Whitesides also ousted vulnerable Republican Rep. Mike Garcia in Southern California.
But Trump’s triumph — including victories in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Michigan, where key House races took place — helped the GOP incumbent and new candidates in the places that mattered.
Two of the biggest GOP wins came in the Keystone State. Republicans unseated two vulnerable, veteran Democrats in neighboring districts in eastern Pennsylvania. GOP businessman Rob Bresnahan ousted Matt Cartwright, a former six-term leadership member, in the 8th District, which Trump carried in 2020. In the neighboring 7th District, based in Allentown, GOP state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie defeated Democratic Rep. Susan upset Wild, the top Democrat on the House Ethics Committee.
In the state capital, Harrisburg, Democrats thought they had a good chance to unseat former Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry, a Trump ally who played a role in the effort to overturn the 2020 election. to shake off. But the incumbent president fended off a stiff challenge from former local TV host Janelle Stelson, who attacked Perry on everything from the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and abortion rights to his votes on veterans’ issues.
Republicans also captured a Michigan seat held by Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who successfully ran for an open Senate seat. And GOP challenger Gabe Evans narrowly defeated freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Colo., by less than 1 percentage point in a heavily Hispanic district north of Denver.
The task of governing
The Tiny House victory has major ramifications as Republicans focus on the task of governing. When Trump and his allies in Congress take control in January, they will have another rare opportunity to push through major policy initiatives through “reconciliation” — an arcane process that will allow the Republican Party to speed up legislation without democratic support.
Debates over which reforms to pursue began before the election, with some Republicans pushing for reconciliation to renew Trump’s expiring tax cuts, while others like Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a Trump ally, calling on Republicans to to take charge of border security. legislation. It’s not yet clear what that border bill would contain, but Trump has repeatedly said that on day one as president he will “seal” the southern border and launch “the largest deportation program in American history.”
In the final days of the campaign, Johnson told supporters that “massive” reform of the Affordable Care Act would be part of the Republican Party’s first 100 days agenda, although he has since denied that Republicans would try to repeal Obamacare because they failed to do so. in 2017.
With little wiggle room, Republicans will certainly face challenges. And Trump has already selected two members of the new majority to serve in his administration: Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York and Mike Waltz of Florida. Both are in solidly Republican districts that the party will likely run in a special election to replace them, but vacancies after they leave could be a problem for Johnson.
The Republican Party had a minuscule majority in this Congress and struggled to advance its agenda. Instead, the past two years have been marked by a successful conservative coup against Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California, the expulsion of a Republican congressman from New York and intraparty bickering over Republican Party spending.
Johnson and Republicans will now have partners in a majority in the Senate and the White House, which they hope will allow them to rally behind Trump and put some of that infighting behind them. Johnson and his top lieutenants — Majority Leader Steve Scalise, also of Louisiana, and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, of Minnesota — all ran unopposed for re-election to their posts on Wednesday.
Johnson will still need 218 votes in the House of Representatives on the first day of the new Congress in early January to win his first full term as president.
“If there’s a unified government … if we have a bicameral approach — Republicans in both chambers working together to develop and implement that agenda, and President Trump leading the way — I think you’ll certainly have a lot less disagreement in the ranks of our government. side,” Johnson said in an interview with NBC News during a campaign stop in Pennsylvania before the election.
“I think everyone wants to be part of the majority that solves the country’s problems,” the speaker added. “And I think governing in January will be a lot easier.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
