The majority of states, 26, saw a decline in high school graduation rates after the pandemic, new research shows.
For example, in 2020, 10 states had a graduation rate of 90% or higher, but only five in 2022, according to Tuesday’s analysis from the Grad Partnership, a network of nonprofits working to improve student outcomes.
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But the report suggests the full impact of COVID school closures on graduation rates has yet to be realised. For example, this year’s seniors were in seventh grade when the pandemic hit in March 2020 and likely spent much of eighth grade learning remotely or in a cycle of alternating in-person learning.
That’s why the pandemic’s impact on college graduation rates and enrollment could have a “long tail,” the report said.
“Graduating from high school is a long process,” says Robert Balfanz, director of the Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins University, which supports the Grad Partnership. “It is mainly the younger children who are more affected.”
The pandemic disrupted a trend of rising graduation rates that began in 2011, driven largely by gains among minorities. But the post-pandemic increase was due to state and local efforts to minimize the impact of the COVID emergency rather than actual educational improvement, Balfanz said.
National and local decisions to relax grading policies, accept late work, and eliminate final exam requirements suggested that more students were meeting expectations. That’s why additional information, such as whether ninth-graders have earned enough credits to advance to 10th grade, data on chronic absenteeism and the number of students taking advanced courses have become increasingly valuable indicators of whether students are on the right track.
The percentage of high school graduates in 2022 ranged from 76.4% in the District of Columbia to 91.2% in West Virginia. (Grad Partnership, National Center for Education Statistics)
Meanwhile, states and districts varied widely on the extent to which COVID affected families, how long schools were closed and whether they were equipped to respond to the crisis.
“We know that some schools have gone to extraordinary lengths to ensure their seniors graduate,” Balfanz said. “Others may not have had that capacity.”
Some students lacked stable WiFi at home or had to go to work when their parents were sick, while other families had the resources to hire teachers and form pods or attend schools that reopened in fall 2020.
Survey: 1 in 4 high school students changed their post-graduation plans due to COVID
Ohio saw the largest increase in rates between 2019 and 2022 – from 82% to 86.2%, while New Jersey saw the largest decline, from 90.6% to 85.2%. But actions in two major states — California and New York — have actually pushed the national rate to a record high, from 85.8% in 2019 to 86.6%.
Both states waived graduation requirements, such as required courses and exams, for students. Meanwhile, New Jersey’s stricter definition of on-time graduation for students with disabilities likely contributed to the decline, the report said.
Rates varied widely at the district level. Of the nearly 7,000 districts included in the analysis, about a third had a higher graduation rate in 2022 than in 2019, while about the same percentage experienced a decline. Rates were stable in about 38% of districts.
But the data, Balfanz says, suggests districts should start as soon as students enter high school to ensure they are making progress toward graduation.
As part of their state accountability systems, six states currently monitor whether ninth graders have a successful first year of high school. Data from five of these states – Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Oregon and Washington – show that significantly fewer students were on track in 2021-2022 than in 2018-2019.
“These students may be more likely to suffer the pandemic’s impact on high school graduation rates than students who experienced the pandemic in 10th and 11th grades,” the report said.
Chronic absenteeism, which remains above 25% in some states, is also more difficult to control at the high school level than in earlier grades and is “the wild card for a prolonged period of pandemic impact on educational attainment,” it said report.
About a third of districts had a higher graduation rate in 2022 than in 2019, while about the same percentage experienced a decline. (Graduate partnership)
‘Hybrid and weird’
Adam Larsen, assistant superintendent of the Oregon Community School District in Illinois, west of Chicago, remembers how many students who were in seventh grade when schools closed struggled in their freshman year.
“That year in eighth grade was hybrid and weird. We had social distancing and no vaccine,” he said. “Socially, they just haven’t matured. The first year tried to be normal, but they weren’t ready for it.”
The Oregon district also offers an after-school mentoring program called Hawks Take Flight, which is designed to prevent students from falling so far behind due to absenteeism or missing work that they cannot graduate on time.
Freshmen, held back during pandemic, create ‘bulge’ in 9th grade enrollment
During the weekly sessions, students talk about what stands in their way. If they reach their goals for the week, they earn prizes.
“Our success rate was high and remains high because of the amount of support we put into it,” Larsen said. “We have made it impossible for students to fail unless they have chosen to fail.”
‘Make the diploma meaningful’
How districts used their $190 billion in pandemic relief money also determined whether students received enough help to keep up with their work.
Diman Regional Vocational Technical High School, in Fall River, Massachusetts, near the Rhode Island border, hired virtual teachers, made home visits and “saw the crisis as an opportunity to use money to support students,” Andrew said Rebello, who was the school’s director until last August.
Massa will eliminate the standardized high school graduation requirement
In 2021, without waiving any graduation expectations, the school achieved a record 98% graduation rate. However, Massachusetts simply changed those expectations. In the general election, voters decided to scrap the requirement that students take exams in English, science and math to graduate.
The vote is a sign that the shift toward forgoing high-stakes testing was not limited to the pandemic.
Harry Felder, executive director of FairTest, which advocates against standardized testing, celebrated the outcome. “Parents, educators and policymakers realize that these tests are failing to drive the education our young people need to thrive in the modern world.” he said in a press release.
But Rebello, now an assistant superintendent in another district, said he believes the state should add another requirement to “make the diploma meaningful.”
The growing backlash against high-stakes testing also creates the opportunity for a new “conversation about what really matters for high school graduation rates,” Balfanz said.
In response to post-pandemic norms, more and more states are lowering testing standards
While some research shows that getting good grades and taking rigorous courses can be a greater predictor of success in college than a single test score, there are also concerns that grades no longer reflect mastery of the subject.
“This is a huge debate,” Balfanz said. “But after the pandemic, we need to reconsider what we expect from our children.”
