MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico is facing a second Donald Trump presidency, and few countries can match its experience as a target of Trump’s rhetoric: There have been threats to close the border, impose tariffs and even send U.S. troops to fight Mexican drug cartels if the country does not do more to stem the flow of migrants and drugs.
Not to mention what mass deportations of migrants living illegally in the U.S. could do to the remittances — the money migrants send home — that have become one of Mexico’s main sources of income.
But as much as this second round resembles the first round – when Mexico appeased Trump by quietly acceding to his immigration demands – circumstances have changed, and not necessarily for the better. Today, Mexico has a somewhat strict left-wing ideologue as president in Claudia Sheinbaum, and Trump is not known for handling such relationships well.
In 2019, then-President of Mexico Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador was a charismatic, outspoken, grassroots leader who seemed to understand Trump, as both had a transactional view of politics: you give me what I want, I’ll give you what you want. The two went on to form a friendly relationship.
But while López Obrador emerged in the give-and-take politics of the often corrupt former ruling party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), Sheinbaum grew up in a family of left-wing activists and gained her political experience in radical student movements at the university. .
“Claudia is more ideological than López Obrador, and so the problem is that I see her potentially responding to Trump’s policies, whether it’s organized crime or immigration or tariffs with a much more nationalistic, jingoistic view of the relationship,” Arturo said Sarukhan, former Ambassador of Mexico to the US from 2007 to 2013.
Sheinbaum made a point of being one of the first world leaders to call Trump on Thursday to congratulate him after the election, but during the call Trump did two things that could say a lot about how things will turn out.
First, Sheinbaum said, Trump quickly brought up the border to remind her that there were problems there. He then asked Sheinbaum to send his regards to López Obrador, with whom Trump said he had “a very good relationship.” That could indicate that Trump believes López Obrador – the new president’s political mentor – is still in charge, a view shared by some analysts.
Sarukhan said he believes the fact that Sheinbaum is a woman and from Mexico will be “a very significant challenge, an issue that is there as they both get going in their relationship.”
Not everything has changed for the worse: Cross-border trade exceeds $800 billion a year, and American companies are more dependent than ever on Mexican factories.
But the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, or USMCA, is about to be revised, and Mexico has made legal changes that Trump could use to demand a renegotiation of parts of the deal.
Sheinbaum has suggested that Mexico will not give in even if it is backed into a corner, saying: “We are obviously going to address all the issues that come with dialogue, as a collaborative process, and if not, we will to get up. prepared to do so with great unity.”
Getting up hasn’t worked very well before. In 2018, Marcelo Ebrard was Mexico’s top diplomat; Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Ebrard essentially bowed to US demands to keep asylum seekers in Mexico and accept migrants back even if they were not Mexicans.
Ebrard only asked that the deal not be made public so as not to embarrass López Obrador, Pompeo wrote. (Ebrard later claimed he had avoided signing a much worse “safe third country” agreement.)
Today, Ebrard is Mexico’s economy minister and would lead the Mexican delegation in the planned 2026 review of the US-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement, something Trump has greeted with glee (“I’ve never seen anyone fold like this ‘. once said about Ebrard.)
Ebrard on Thursday downplayed any risks this time, saying economic ties between the two countries would prevent Trump from closing borders or imposing tariffs.
“I am optimistic. Unlike other countries, we are (the US) largest trading partner, so if you impose a tariff, it will affect the United States,” Ebrard said. “I’m not saying it will be easy, because it is not easy at all, but the relationship with President Trump will be good, because what unites us? These numbers, this gigantic economy.”
But some former diplomats say any argument that Mexico can avoid friction with the Trump administration is overconfident, and that 2025 won’t necessarily be the same as 2019.
Martha Bárcena, Mexico’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2018 to 2021, said she does not think Trump would back down from campaign promises to deport migrants staying in the country illegally. She said Mexican officials who think Trump might temper his “campaign promises because Mexican migrants are necessary to the U.S. economy” are overly optimistic.
“Mexico looks at it through the lens of economic logic. The logic that the Trump campaign applies to immigration is a logic of national security and cultural identity issues,” Bárcena said.
Some of Trump’s biggest policy concerns — the recovery of American jobs and the growing rivalry with China — also run through Mexico.
U.S. and foreign automakers have set up dozens of factories in Mexico, and some in the U.S. worry that Chinese companies could do the same to take advantage of existing trade rules to export Chinese cars or auto parts to the United States.
It doesn’t help that Sheinbaum has pushed López Obrador’s policies aimed at eliminating independent regulatory and supervisory bodies, and laws that the US government believes could undermine the independence of the judiciaryboth of which are required under the USMCA trade agreement.
“If they continue with the elimination of independent regulators and autonomous bodies, it will be a further violation of the USMCA,” Sarukhan said. “And that will make things worse. Obviously the big piece will be China and the Chinese footprint will be in Mexico.”
That could lead to Trump demanding renegotiation of all auto industry deals under the trade pact.
As for efforts to jointly combat illicit drug trafficking – which fell to historic lows in 2019 and 2020 – there are some modestly encouraging signs. Last week, Mexico announced the seizure in Tijuana of more than 300,000 fentanyl pills, after months in which the country’s total seizures were just 50 grams — a few ounces — per week.
Sheinbaum, who took office on October 1, also appears to be quietly abandoning López Obrador’s strategy of not confronting drug cartels. But neither she nor her predecessor and political mentor could ever accept any plan by Trump to send American troops to operate independently on Mexican soil.
It remains to be seen how far Trump could go; he often makes only symbolic gestures to carry through threats. But Sarukhan noted, “I think he’ll talk loudly and carry a big stick.”
