(Bloomberg) — Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports fell last week, with the biggest drop since early July dragging down the four-week average.
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Weekly flows fell by about 530,000 barrels per day in the period to November 3, as Russia exported no shipments from the Arctic port of Murmansk and only one from Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. Four-week exports fell by 90,000 barrels per day, extending the decline for a second week, despite major ports on the Baltic and Pacific coasts operating near peak levels.
The drop in cargo from Novorossiysk reflects a four-day gap in the loading program; Such periods often indicate maintenance at a port or on the pipelines that serve the port. The decline in Arctic shipments may simply be a reflection of planning: the previous week there were three tankers loading and by the end of the most recent period four more tankers were loading in or near the Moermanskfjord.
Russia’s primary refining rate rose sharply in the last week of October as seasonal maintenance exceeded its peak. That likely reduced the amount of crude oil available for export.
Indian Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri says his country, already the largest market for Moscow’s seaborne crude, could further boost oil imports from Russia if prices are right. He adds that there has been a small decline recently as other sources have become more competitive. Russia now supplies 38% of India’s crude oil imports, he added.
The drop in deliveries came as the OPEC+ group of oil producers, which Russia co-leads with Saudi Arabia, postponed for a second time a plan to add back some of the supply it has cut in recent years . Moscow will have to wait at least until early next year to enjoy a rising production target, although that could be postponed again.
Raw shipments
A total of 29 tankers loaded 21.11 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to November 3, according to shipping data and port agent reports. Volume fell from 24.97 million barrels on 32 ships the week before.
Daily crude oil supplies fell by about 530,000 barrels to 3.02 million in the week to November 3, the lowest in six weeks. The decline was driven by lower flows from the country’s Black Sea and Arctic ports, which more than offset higher shipments from the Pacific.
Less volatile four-week average flows also fell, falling for a second week to an average of 3.32 million barrels per day, down 90,000 from the period to October 27.
Crude oil shipments so far this year are about 50,000 barrels per day, or 1.4%, below the average for all of 2023.
One cargo of KEBCO oil from Kazakhstan was loaded during the week in Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea and one in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.
Russia ended its export targets at the end of May and opted to limit production, in line with its partners in the OPEC+ oil producer group. The country’s production target has been set at 8.978 million barrels per day until the end of December, after a planned easing of some production cuts was postponed for a second time.
Moscow also pledged to make deeper output cuts in October and November this year, and then between March and September 2025, to compensate for exceeding its OPEC+ quota earlier this year.
Export value
The impact of the drop in oil revenues on the Kremlin’s oil revenues was amplified by the fall in the price of Russian crude oil, which together reduced the gross value of Moscow’s exports in the week to November 3 by around $250 million pushed to $1.35 billion.
Revenues declined with a decline in weekly average prices for major Russian crude oil flows, adding to the effect of lower export volumes. The price drop was in line with the broader drop in oil prices after Iran’s energy infrastructure was spared in response to Jerusalem’s rocket barrage launched by the Persian Gulf state on Israel early last month.
Export values ​​at Baltic ports fell by around $2.30 per barrel week on week. Prices for loading Ural and key Pacific ESPO into the Black Sea fell by around $1.90 compared to the previous week. Delivery prices in India fell by a similar amount, according to figures from Argus Media.
The four-week average income fell to around $1.53 billion a week, from $1.57 billion in the period to October 27.
On this basis, the price of Russian shipments from the Baltic and Black Seas had fallen by around $0.80 per barrel in the four weeks to November 3 compared to the period to October 27. Prices for key Pacific grade ESPO were lower by about $0.30 per barrel. walk.
Flows by destination
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Asia
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Observed shipments to Russian Asian customers, including customers with no final destination, fell to 3.03 million barrels per day in the four weeks to November 3. That’s about 6% below average levels during the recent peak in April.
About 1.3 million barrels of crude oil per day were loaded onto tankers bound for China. The Asian country’s seaborne imports are boosted by about 800,000 barrels of crude oil per day, delivered by pipeline from Russia, either directly or via Kazakhstan.
Flows on ships signaling destinations in India averaged 1.27 million barrels per day, compared with a revised 1.58 million for the period to October 27.
Indian figures in particular are likely to rise as discharge ports become clear for ships that currently do not show final destinations. Most people traveling from Russia’s western ports via the Suez Canal end up in the South Asian country.
The equivalent of about 140,000 barrels per day was on ships signaling Port Said or Suez in Egypt. These appear as ‘Unknown Asia’ until a final destination becomes clear.
The ‘Other Unknown’ volumes, which amount to around 320,000 barrels per day in the four weeks to November 3, come from tankers with no clear destination. Most come from Russia’s western ports and pass through the Suez Canal, but some could end up in Turkey. Others can be moved from one ship to another.
Two Aframax tankers, Cankiri and Sakarya, declare their destination as OPL Morocco, suggesting they may transfer their cargo in a VLCC when they arrive there in the coming days.
At least nine tankers that have loaded cargoes in Russia’s Baltic ports since October 22 are still anchored off Ust-Luga and showing no destination. Similar delays have been observed from time to time in the past.
In addition, Greece’s navel exercises that have been taking place since May, forcing most ship-to-ship cargo transfers out of the Laconian Gulf and nearby waters, will end this month unless extended again.
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Europe and Turkey
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Russian exports of crude oil by sea to European countries have stopped, while flows to Bulgaria stopped at the end of last year. Moscow also lost about 500,000 barrels per day in pipeline exports to Poland and Germany in early 2023, when those countries stopped purchasing.
Turkey is now the only short-haul market for shipments from Russia’s western ports, with flows unchanged in the 28 days to November 3 at around 290,000 barrels per day.
NOTES
This story is part of a weekly series tracking crude oil shipments from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, November 12.
All figures exclude loads identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. These are KazTransoil JSC shipments passing through Russia for export via Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are mixed with crude oil of Russian origin to create a uniform export flow. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has renamed its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
Ship tracking data is compared with reports from port agents and with flows and ship movements reported by other information providers, including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd.
TK TK If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file showing average four-week flows from Russia to major destinations.
–With help from Sherry Su.
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