Let’s take a look at the San Diego Padres’ 2024 season, the questions the team must answer this winter and the early outlook for 2025.
Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What’s next for the Orioles, Astros, Phillies and more?
Result after the season
The Padres swept the Braves in the wild-card round, but lost to the Dodgers in five games in the NLDS. They lost a back-and-forth Game 1 before putting on a show in a raucous Game 2. They went up two games to one with a 6-5 win at a rocking Petco Park in Game 3, but the Dodgers came back for a shutout. victories in Games 4 and 5.
Overall, Fernando Tatis (1.500 OPS), Jackson Merrill (.833) and Kyle Higashioka (1.062) carried the offense in the postseason, with significant contributions from David Peralta. But Luis Arraez had a lousy postseason (.226 average), and Jake Cronenworth (.136) and Xander Bogaerts (.167) weren’t much better. The Padres offense finished the postseason by going 24 straight innings without scoring.
In the rotation, Dylan Cease was the one who struggled the most as the Dodgers got him in Game 1 and Game 4, both Padres losses. Michael King and Yu Darvish were effective, but not always supported by run support, and the bullpen was largely solid. Losing Joe Musgrove in October hurt and might have been the difference in a hard-fought series.
Things that went well
The Padres were a model of perseverance this year as they were 50-50 after 100 games before rallying to finish tied for the fourth-best record in baseball. The team overcame long-term injuries to the franchise player – Fernando Tatis Jr. played in 102 games – and two key starting pitchers to stay in contention until a healthy squad could withdraw from the competition at a later date.
On the hitting side, the success came thanks to balanced contributions from several Padres. Jurickson Profar was the surprise player, as he was expected to contribute minimally on a one-year deal, but instead led the club in OPS and scoring points. Manny Machado had another solid season, leading the Padres in home runs and RBI. Jackson Merrill exceeded all expectations for his rookie year by hitting .292 with 24 home runs and an .826 OPS.
A pair of offseason additions bolstered the pitching staff. Michael King, who was part of the Juan Soto trade, led the Padres in ERA. Dylan Cease, acquired from the White Sox in March, was the team leader in innings, wins and strikeouts. The relief corps was led by Robert Suarez, who was one of baseball’s best players in his first season in the role.
Things that went wrong
After doing well in his first year with the Padres, Xander Bogaerts dealt with a left shoulder fracture this year and was not very productive (.688 OPS) in the 111 games he played. San Diego needs the 32-year-old to get back on track next season as he has nine years left on his $280 million contract.
The biggest disappointments on the pitching side were injuries rather than performances, as Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove each fell short of 100 innings. The team struggled to replace those innings, as Matt Waldron (26 starts, 4.79 ERA) and Randy Vazquez (20 starts, 4.87 ERA) didn’t accomplish much other than eating innings.
Off-season plans
Overall, the Padres roster is in great shape heading into 2025. The team had an average payroll this season and has few shortcomings. Adding a starting pitcher, an outfielder and a catcher would be worthwhile, but there aren’t many glaring holes for this team.
The infield is full of players who have been under team control for multiple seasons. As someone who hits for average but offers no power, Luis Arraez is an atypical but effective first baseman. Bogaerts will continue to play second base, while Ha-Seong Kim and Machado will play short stop and hot corner, respectively. Jake Cronenworth is a valuable utility man who can share first base with Arraez and fill in at other positions. However, the team is unsettled behind the plate after Luis Campusano followed a breakout performance in 2023 by taking a big step back this season. Campusano will likely be part of a catching tandem in 2025, but he will need to be paired with someone reliable.
San Diego is in great shape with two of the three outfield spots. Fernando Tatis Jr. hasn’t reached his ceiling since missing the entire 2022 season, but even a slightly underwhelming version of Tatis is still a very effective player. He will play right field and Merrill will be the center fielder. Profar is headed to free agency, but after his surprise success in 2024, there should be interest from both sides to continue the relationship.
The rotation produces three key members: Cease, King and Darvish. While Waldron and Vazquez have struggled at times this year, they are good enough to compete for the final rotation spot. Considering Darvish is 38 years old, Musgrove will miss 2025 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and there are no top pitching prospects in San Diego’s minor league system, it would make sense for the team to sign a starter via trade or free agency.
The relief corps can withstand the loss of Tanner Scott to free agency, while the rest of the group is set to return. Suarez will continue to fill the role of closer, and Jason Adam, Yuki Matsui, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon will form the setup team.
Prospects on the horizon
The Padres entered 2024 with one of the top-ranked baseball farm systems before jettisoning many of their top players in this year’s deals to acquire Cease, Arraez, Adam and Scott. They still have a few jewels, but there is no one in the pipeline who is likely to make a significant contribution next year.
Ethan Salas was considered the best international player in the 2023 signing class. He profiles as an excellent defensive catcher whose plate skills are still a work in progress. Salas is still just 18 years old and needs at least two more minor league seasons.
The other notable prospect is shortstop Leodalis De Vries, who was arguably the best prospect in the 2024 international signing period. De Vries, only 17, is a true five-tool prospect. Like Salas, he will need at least two more years of minor league development.
Goals for 2025
Even the Padres’ front office would have to admit that the Dodgers have a stranglehold on the NL West. After all, Los Angeles has won the division in eleven of the past twelve seasons, and San Diego’s most recent NL West crown came back in 2006. For this reason, the first goal for the 2025 Padres should be to make the postseason . Many teams have had deep postseason runs from wild-card spots, including the Padres, who reached the NLCS in 2022.
Outdoing Los Angeles should still be part of the goal and plan for San Diego, but it will be tough to take down a team that has a winning percentage of .600 or better in each of the past six seasons achieved.
Fantasy focus
Tatis will lead the charge for San Diego in fantasy circles, with a projected average draft position at the end of Round 1 or the beginning of Round 2. The next Padre off the board is Cease, who will be rated as a low- final bait, followed by Merrill and the extremely reliable Machado. These three players will be selected in the round 5 series.
The remaining Padres will be mid-round picks, with Suarez, Bogaerts and Kim fitting into that category. Darvish will be a boom-or-bust option in the second half of the drafts.
