Democratic senators seeking re-election this year are doing so in every state where the presidential election is still close, but it still may not be enough to keep the party in the Senate next year.
What once seemed like a tough card for Democrats — with a half-dozen vulnerable incumbents in the Senate, hobbled by an unpopular Democratic president in the White House — now appears less so, according to a new poll from The Cook Political Report.
In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey leads wealthy businessman Dave McCormick 53% to 40%. In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads entrepreneur Eric Hovde 50% to 43%. And in Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen leads veteran Sam Brown by a whopping 18 percentage points.
Democrats are also doing well in the race for two open Senate seats. In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican election denier Kari Lake 51% to 42%. In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin outpolls former House GOP Rep. Mike Rogers 50% to 42%.
The renewed enthusiasm for Vice President Kamala Harris, who replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic presidential ticket last month, is helping her campaign not only against former President Donald Trump but also against lower-ranking candidates. Democrats have improved their vote share in every race since Cook last conducted polls in the presidential battleground in May.
“The increase was especially large in Nevada, one of Biden’s worst states,” Cook’s Jessica Taylor wrote Thursday.
However, the polls show that the outcome in most states will be very close. Election Day is still almost three months away and the risk of polling errors cannot be ruled out in some areas, as has been seen in previous elections.
The big problem for Democrats is that unless they expand the map and flip a Republican seat, all their efforts to retain a Senate majority could be for naught. With Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) retiring and his seat almost certain to go to the GOP next year, Democrats can afford to lose just one more seat if they retain the White House.
Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) ― two Democrats from red states defending seats where Trump is extremely popular ― are seen as the most vulnerable to a GOP challenge. Polls have shown Brown ahead of his businessman opponent Bernie Moreno, but Tester has trailed veteran Tim Sheehy in recent polls.
Both Tester and Brown are campaigning on their bipartisan legislative accomplishments in the Senate, such as providing veterans care and boosting manufacturing, and highlighting times they worked against their party. Tester, for example, is one of the few Democrats who has not yet endorsed Harris.
Democrats have also gone on the offensive, trying to defeat Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott in the GOP strongholds of Texas and Florida, but those campaigns are seen as a long shot. A recent poll, however, found Scott’s Democratic challenger, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, within reach.
Top Democrats are now in top form. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he felt “excited and gratified” by the wave of enthusiasm behind Harris, and predicted his party would retain the Senate and retake the House next year.
“We are so excited about the prospects of winning the presidency, keeping the Senate and winning the House of Representatives,” Schumer told The Associated Press earlier this month.
