Much has been made of the November rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, but the outcome of the down-ballot elections will determine whether the winner of the presidential race can actually implement his legislative agenda next year.
With Republicans defending a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to regain control of the House of Representatives, with both parties doing everything they can to secure a majority.
Here are seven House races to watch this year:
Arizona’s first congressional district
Republican incumbent David Schweikert is running for re-election in this toss-up district, which spans northeast Phoenix and Scottsdale. As one of 17 Republicans in the House of Representatives representing districts the president won in 2020, Schweikert is vulnerable, and Democrats have identified the seat as one of their top targets this year.
Redistricting after the 2020 census has shifted this district to the left, and several Democrats have jumped into the July 30 primary in hopes of dethroning Schweikert. The race is expected to be closely contested, as Schweikert won his 2022 election by less than one point.
California’s 47th congressional district
Democratic congressman Katie Porter opted not to run for re-election in this battleground district, instead launching an ultimately unsuccessful campaign in the Senate. Her departure has created a significant opportunity for Republicans in the House of Representatives, and Democrats will likely have to invest heavily in the district to defend this Orange County-based seat.
In the March 5 primary, former Republican lawmaker Scott Baugh, who lost to Porter in 2022 by just three points, advanced to the general election along with Democratic Sen. Dave Min.
Min emerged from a brutal primary battle against Democratic activist and attorney Joanna Weiss, who attacked her opponent over his drunk driving arrest last year. Republicans are likely to launch similar attacks against Min ahead of the general election, but Democrats are still favored to hold the left-leaning district.
Maine’s sece congressional district
Democratic incumbent Jared Golden is running for a fourth term in this perennial swing district that Republicans have repeatedly tried and failed to flip. Golden defeated former Republican Congressman Bruce Poliquin by six points in 2022, even though Trump won the district by six points two years earlier, according to data compiled by Daily Kos.
But this time, Republicans believe they have a strong candidate in Austin Theriault, a state representative and former professional race car driver who will face fellow state Rep. Michael Soboleski in a June 11 primary. Republicans also suspect some independent voters will turn against Golden after he announced his support for an assault weapons ban in response to the mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine, last year that left 18 people dead.
Golden has proven politically resilient in this right-wing district, so a loss could signal broader electoral problems for Democrats in November.
Michigan’s sevene congressional district
Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin’s decision to run for Senate has created an opening in this battleground district, which both parties have identified as a key target this year.
Former Republican Sen. Tom Barrett has filed to run again after losing the 2022 election to Slotkin by six points, and is expected to face former Democratic Sen. Curtis Hertel.
The Cook Political Report has described the district as “the most competitive open seat in the country,” and the high stakes are likely to make for a very expensive race.
That of North Carolina first congressional district
Freshman Democratic Congressman Don Davis is running for re-election in this northeastern North Carolina district, which has shifted to the right after the latest round of redistricting.
To the relief of Republican strategists, Laurie Buckhout won the nomination for Congress over Sandy Smith, who lost to Davis by five points in 2022. Smith’s electoral prospects were hampered by her controversial record; she was previously charged with domestic violence, and she was at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, when a group of Trump supporters stormed the building to disrupt the certification of Biden’s victory in the 2020 election.
Republicans are hopeful that Buckhout’s impressive resume as an Army veteran and founder of her own consulting firm, combined with the more favorable district boundaries, will be enough to dethrone Davis.
New York’s 17th congressional district
Mike Lawler made headlines when he defeated incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney, then chairman of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, by less than one point in 2022. This year, Maloney is expected to face former Democratic Congressman Mondaire Jones in this Hudson Valley district. that was true for Biden in 2020.
Lawler wasn’t dealt the worst hand by New York’s redistricting process; that distinction goes to fellow Republican freshman Brandon Williams, whose seat in the Syracuse region went from Biden +7 to Biden +11, according to the Cook Political Report.
Still, Lawler will face stiff competition in a race that will be closely watched for broader electoral trends in November. If he cannot keep the seat, it could spell trouble for Republicans during the election.
Pennsylvania’s eighte congressional district
Along with Golden, Cartwright is one of only five Democrats in the House of Representatives representing districts won by Trump in 2020, and Republicans are targeting his seat in the Scranton area.
But Cartwright has repeatedly defied political gravitas in this right-wing district, recently winning reelection by about two points in 2022. This time, Cartwright will face local businessman Rob Bresnahan, who could pose a serious threat to the incumbent president.
Cartwright has to hope he can pull off another upset to hold on to this toss-up chair.
