CONCORD – Months of campaigning saw the city of Manchester used for political gain, with both candidates sharing personal stories of miscarriage and New Hampshire being inundated with political ads. Now the nation’s most competitive gubernatorial elections, between Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig, are finally upon us.
Polls show it to be a neck-and-neck race, with no candidate emerging as a clear favorite. Ayotte, a former U.S. senator, has benefited from name recognition and the support of outgoing Republican Gov. Chris Sununu. Craig, a former mayor of Manchester, has been lifted by Vice President Kamala Harris’ popularity in the state during a presidential election year and by the support of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and other prominent Democrats.
Ayotte and Craig began campaigning against each other even before winning their party nominations in the September 10 primaries. Since the beginning, Ayotte has hounded Craig over her tenure in Manchester and Craig has hit Ayotte hard on the issue of abortion.
Here are six of the defining issues and campaign themes that could be decisive for voters on Tuesday, November 5:
Abortion has been a top issue throughout the campaign
Throughout the year, abortion has played a defining role in the race between Craig and Ayotte.
Craig and New Hampshire Democrats have repeatedly suggested in debates, speaking engagements and aggressive ads that Ayotte cannot be trusted on abortion issues and that she could further try to restrict access in the state. Current New Hampshire law prohibits abortion after 24 weeks.
Ayotte has a reputation for being further to the right on abortion than the average New Hampshire voter. As a senator, she originally co-sponsored a bill that would ban abortion after 20 weeks. She voted several times to defund Planned Parenthood. She also served as the “sherpa” for Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch, who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Ayotte has often said she supports the New Hampshire law and would veto any legislation that seeks to further restrict it. She supports abortion being a states’ rights issue and said she would fight to keep it that way during a recent debate.
The issue has become personal as both candidates have released television ads detailing their own experiences with miscarriages.
The city of Manchester was caught in the political crossfire
Manchester, New Hampshire’s largest city, has been the subject of most of Ayotte’s attacks on Craig. She has pointed to problems with homelessness and drug use in the city and said New Hampshire “cannot allow Joyce Craig to do to New Hampshire what she did to Manchester.”
In return, Craig has criticized Ayotte for portraying the city in a negative light and instead praised her achievements as mayor, such as creating housing and an attractive job market while reducing violent crime and opioid overdoses.
Ayotte is running on an anti-Massachusetts platform
Massachusetts has been a central theme in Ayotte’s campaign: don’t let New Hampshire become like Massachusetts.
“Don’t MASS Up New Hampshire,” is her slogan.
That line of messaging includes everything from taxes to immigration: Ayotte has accused Craig of wanting to make New Hampshire a haven for immigrants and raising taxes, both of which Craig has denied. And Ayotte has heavily criticized Craig for his campaign with Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey.
Her message may resonate with some: An October 2023 Suffolk/Boston Globe/USA TODAY poll found that 32% of New Hampshire voters likely to vote in the Republican primary thought too many Massachusetts residents move to New Hampshire.
However, she also risks alienating some voters, as Massachusetts is the largest source of migrants to New Hampshire and fewer than half of the state’s residents were born in the Granite State.
A huge amount of money has been raised and spent
It is the most expensive gubernatorial race in New Hampshire history.
According to the latest financial report before the Nov. 5 general election, Ayotte has raised more than $21 million for her New Hampshire gubernatorial campaign.
Her Democratic opponent, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, has raised just over $7.3 million.
The majority of Ayotte’s funds (82%) come from companies/organizations, and the majority of Craig’s funds (65%) come from individuals.
Political experts in New Hampshire expected cash flow to be high, especially after a scandal in the North Carolina governor’s race made New Hampshire’s race the closest gubernatorial race in the country and freed up national funds.
The Republican Governors Association Live Free PAC has given $12 million to Ayotte, and the Democratic Governors Association has donated $1.7 million to Craig. These figures do not include other RGA and DGA funds that were not given directly to the candidates but used to promote them, as well as other outside groups that spent money on advertising.
The amount of money means the regional airwaves have been flooded with Ayotte and Craig ads.
Money is important for messaging through television or online ads, said Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center, but it’s not everything.
“Money doesn’t necessarily win the race,” Smith said. “You just have to have enough money.”
Both candidates, he said, have plenty of money.
The Trump factor
Trump has been a touchy subject for Ayotte, both during the primaries and general election campaign, as well as in previous elections.
In 2016, Ayotte withdrew her support of Trump after the “Access Hollywood” tape was released, in which he bragged about making sexually aggressive and rude comments toward women. She subsequently lost her Senate seat to Democrat Maggie Hassan in a very close race.
In 2024, Ayotte endorsed Trump but did not make him a central part of her campaign, avoiding a full embrace of him.
During a recent debate, Ayotte sidestepped a question about continuing to support Trump despite his 34 felony convictions, instead explaining that she saw the election as a choice between what the country looked like under his administration versus that of President Joe Biden.
“I think the country was better off just in terms of costs, what we pay and security when he was in power,” she said.
Craig responded by asking Ayotte where she would “draw the line.”
“Is it when he sexually assaults women? Is it when he brags about Hitler? Is it when he tries to overthrow democracy? Craig said.
Ayotte’s poor relationship with the former president and his lack of popularity in the state mean she will likely have to stay well ahead of the former president in New Hampshire to win the election.
Interest and dividend taxes are a late-emerging problem
The interest and dividend tax may sound boring, but it has become one of the top issues in the campaign, as recently reported by New Hampshire Bulletin.
The interest and dividend tax is a state tax on distributions, dividends and interest income that often arise from investments.
Any New Hampshire resident who received more than $2,400 per year from any of these categories – or $4,800 per year if filing jointly – must pay the tax.
Most Granite Staters don’t pay the interest and dividend taxes, the data shows, and it’s largely paid by higher income taxpayers.
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New Hampshire Republicans have taken steps to repeal the interest and dividend tax, which has been phased out since 2022 and will be phased out for the 2025 tax year and beyond.
Craig has challenged this choice, portraying the move as a handout for the wealthy. She said she would push for the tax to be reinstated and adjusted to focus on higher incomes.
Ayotte has since attacked that position and used it to say that Craig supports raising taxes.
This report uses reporting by Ethan DeWitt of New Hampshire Bulletin.
This article originally appeared in Portsmouth Herald: Ayotte vs. Craig: 6 Issues Could Determine the NH Governor’s Race
