Sunday’s Buffalo Bills-Los Angeles Rams game featured some things you’ll rarely see in the NFL, including one major one: A losing quarterback saw his chances of winning NFL MVP dramatically improve.
Josh Allen was so good on Sunday that he could have won his first MVP award if he lost. Considering how much weight MVP voters place on being the quarterback of a No. 1-seeded team, it’s notable that Allen jumps well ahead in line with MVP odds despite a loss. It may be unprecedented.
Allen is now a heavy -400 favorite to win NFL MVP at BetMGM after his historic six-touchdown game. He was the first player in NFL history to score three rushing touchdowns and have three passing touchdowns in a regular season game. He also had the best game for a quarterback in Yahoo fantasy football history.
The Bills lost to the Rams 44-42, a damaging result in their pursuit of the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But the MVP race may be over after what happened in that game.
Josh Allen will be a big favorite
The odds of -400 for Allen meant that he almost had a chance to win the prize in the eyes of oddsmakers. The implied odds for a -400 favorite are 80%. That gives the rest of the field a 20% chance with a month to go, if you believe in the odds. You’d have to bet $400 on Allen to win MVP to win $100 at his current odds.
Allen has already won in the race and was a -225 favorite last week. As of last week, Allen had more money available to win MVP than any other player at BetMGM. Allen got 18.6% of the money bet on MVP.
Those Allen punters must be feeling pretty good right about now after his big leap forward.
Allen is having a very good season, with 23 passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns. The Bills have already captured the AFC East title. The Bills are two games behind the Kansas City Chiefs for the top record in the AFC after Sunday’s loss, and that’s usually bad for MVP hopefuls. Of the past fifteen MVPs, twelve have been No. 1 seed quarterbacks. That streak includes seven No. 1 seed QBs in a row. But Patrick Mahomes isn’t having a typically great season, which opens the door for Allen.
After Sunday’s match it will be difficult to overtake him.
Can anyone catch Allen?
There are only three other candidates with MVP odds of less than 35 to 1. A late injury to Allen could change the race, as it did for Carson Wentz in 2017 or Jalen Hurts in 2022. And there are ways each of can give the three a boost:
Saquon Barkley (+400): The path for Barkley remains the same. He is on pace for 2,122 rushing yards, which would break Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-old record of 2,105 in a season. If he achieves that record and the Eagles get the No. 1 seed, this could be a factor. Voters like QBs from No. 1 seeds, so they might appreciate a top seed’s record if the top QB (Allen) doesn’t finish at the top of his conference.
Lamar Jackson (+1200): Jackson has had another remarkable season. Jackson is the only quarterback who could play well enough to beat Allen over the last four weeks. Jackson’s big problem is his team’s 8-5 record. The Ravens are two games behind the Steelers in the AFC North. Good luck winning MVP when your team isn’t even a division winner. But if Jackson heats up along the way and the Ravens win the AFC North, he might have a chance. Bonus points for him if the Ravens have at least the same record as the Bills.
Jared Goff (+1400): Goff is still on the list for one reason, and that is the history of voters wanting to give MVP to a QB from a No. 1 seed. If the Lions finish with a 16-1 record, there could be standard votes for Goff. He also has very good grades, with a rating of 109.1, so votes for him may be justified. Goff’s only chance is if he plays well the rest of the season and the Lions are the NFC’s No. 1 seed. He also has a chance to beat Allen this weekend when the Lions host the Bills.
There are four games left and we’ve seen MVP races shift in the final month of a season earlier. But the odds starting this week make it clear: It’s Allen’s price to lose.
