A disturbance in the Caribbean Sea will develop into a tropical storm on Monday and could become a hurricane before entering the Gulf of Mexico this week, forecasters said.
The system was located 350 kilometers south of Jamaica on Monday morning. If it strengthens, the storm would be named Rafael.
The storm had no defined center of circulation as of Monday morning, meaning its future path and intensity are largely uncertain, the National Hurricane Center said.
Forecasters say the storm will strengthen this week as it approaches the Gulf. But once the storm reaches the Gulf, it will encounter wind shear from the southwest and dry air that will likely weaken it, forecasters say.
The National Hurricane Center is asking residents throughout the Gulf Coast, including Mississippi, to watch the forecast. Any impacts to the Gulf Coast would occur Friday or Saturday, according to current forecasts.
The best-case scenario could be a rainy weekend in the South, which is experiencing drought, said James Spann, an Alabama meteorologist.
“That’s just one possibility,” Spann wrote on social media. It’s also possible the storm “lingers hundreds of miles to the south with no impact here,” he said. “We will have much better clarity within 24 to 36 hours.”
The storm is expected to reach Cuba on Tuesday, likely as a Category 1 hurricane.
