A larger-than-expected Spanish olive harvest could bring relief to inflation-hit shoppers in the form of lower supermarket prices later this year.
Latest figures from the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture show that the country’s next harvest could be 11% higher than previously forecast and almost 30% higher than in 2023, when drought and high agricultural costs reduced the country’s harvest than normal. supplies almost half of the world’s olive oil.
The increase in harvest means more olive oil will be produced, an outcome that could lead to price cuts in stores if wholesalers and retailers allow some of the supply increase and the cost cuts pass to consumers.
Food and other consumer price inflation rose in mid-2021, rising for a time after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a war that pitted two major food producers against each other, with olive oil demand and prices soaring as Ukrainian supplies of sunflower oil dried up. for months as the conflict intensified.
OECD data shows food inflation at around 2% in 2019, but rising from 4% in 2021 to 12% at the end of 2022, with average supermarket prices for olive oil doubling in some countries.
Consumer price inflation has since eased in most European countries and has recently fallen to pre-2021 levels. However, food price inflation remains above broader consumer indexes and prices for most food goods, as well as necessities such as fuel and electricity, remain well above levels from half a decade ago.
Some British supermarkets have been putting security labels on olive oil bottles since 2022 to deter thieves, while others have locked their stock of the increasingly expensive cooking product behind glass doors.
A less expensive olive oil, if it comes, could reduce consumer dependence on arguably less healthy but cheaper seed oils. Research papers recently published by the American Medical Association suggest that people who consume olive oil have “reduced mortality from all causes” and are less likely to develop dementia.
