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State Sen. Mike McDonnell dashes GOP hopes for a make-or-break victory in Nebraska in 2024

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State Sen. Mike McDonnell dashes GOP hopes for a make-or-break victory in Nebraska in 2024

Sen. Mike McDonnell announces he is leaving the Democratic Party after being censured by the state and Douglas County Democrats. (Aaron Sanderford/Nebraska Examiner)

LINCOLN — The Republican effort to change the way Nebraska awards its Electoral College votes and boost former President Donald Trump ran into political reality Monday when a key lawmaker, Sen. Mike McDonnell, announced he will not support the change.

McDonnell, of Omaha, said he has heard from people who are passionate about the issue and who live in Omaha’s 2nd Congressional District. But he said he hasn’t heard enough to sway him from his original position against the switch.

“Elections should be an opportunity for all voters to be heard, no matter who they are, where they live or what party they support,” McDonnell said in a statement. “I “We have taken the time to listen carefully to Nebraskans and national leaders on both sides of the issue. After careful consideration, it is clear to me that now, 43 days before Election Day, is not the time to make this change.”

McDonnell said he told Pillen his position and suggested that the Legislature put the winner-take-all principle to a popular vote, as a proposed constitutional amendment, so the people could decide the issue “once and for all.”

Nebraska and Maine are the only states that award a single Electoral College vote to the winner in each congressional district, plus two votes to the statewide winner of the presidential popular vote. Nebraska has split votes twice in four presidential elections.

President Joe Biden won the 2nd District in 2020. Trump won all five of the state’s electoral votes in 2016. Mitt Romney did the same in 2012. The 2nd District got its national moniker as “the blue dot” in 2008, when former President Barack Obama won it.

2nd district split

Nebraska Republicans have been arguing for years that Nebraska should award all five electoral votes to the winner of the state’s presidential election. Many call this a “winner-takes-all” process.

Republicans have a 2-to-1 advantage over Democrats in voter registration statewide, but in the 2nd District the split between Republicans, Democrats and registered nonpartisans is much more even. This split makes the 2nd District competitive in national elections.

Gov. Jim Pillen had promised to call a special session if he could get the 33 votes needed to overcome a filibuster and move to a winner-takes-all system. All five of Nebraska’s GOP representatives wrote a letter urging state lawmakers to pass such a measure.

Pillen’s office declined to comment Monday, as did the Trump and Harris campaigns.

McDonnell’s no to winner-take-all leaves Republicans in Nebraska’s officially nonpartisan legislature without a path to overcome a promised filibuster unless a Democrat or nonpartisan senator defects. So far, no one has challenged the status quo.

Part of the GOP urgency is wrapped up in national polls showing a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee. Some political observers have argued that the 2nd District could break a 269-269 Electoral College tie.

Few Democrats were surprised that the fate of the winner-takes-all race hinged largely on McDonnell, a former president of the Omaha firefighters union who switched to the Republican Party this spring after facing political opposition from Democrats over his support for abortion restrictions.

Several people said the abortion debate should have shown Republicans that McDonnell is largely unyielding once he makes a controversial position clear. McDonnell said that when he switched parties, he would not be a winner-takes-all.

McDonnell’s position softened in recent weeks under pressure from local, state and national Republicans, including some with ties to the Trump campaign. He was one of two dozen GOP state senators who met with Pillen and U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., on Sept. 18.

Both parties have heard of

People in the audience said McDonnell told GOP colleagues last week that he was looking for a way to get to a yes. McDonnell told the Examiner on Thursdaynot long after the meeting discussion became public, he remains a winner-take-all no-winner-take-all supporter “to this day.”

He continued to meet and speak with people on both sides of the issue, including those with ties to Trump, after that statement. He also heard from state and local Democrats with ties to Harris.

But on Monday, McDonnell appeared willing to let the matter rest. And in doing so, he may have secured an election in which a small piece of Nebraska matters to both presidential campaigns.

Both Trump and Harris have campaign staffers in Nebraska, and both have sent surrogates to campaign here. Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Nebraska native, held a rally there. Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, came to Nebraska to raise money and meet with local Republicans.

For McDonnell, the calculation may be partly political. He has openly flirted with a run for mayor of Omaha in 2025. His likely opponent, Republican incumbent Jean Stothert, has said she supports a switch to winner-takes-all.

Statewide support tends toward winner-takes-all, but polls over several years indicate broad support in the 2nd District for keeping the state’s unusual system, drawing attention and money to the Omaha region.

McDonnell’s statement acknowledged the impact on the district.

“For Omaha … it brings tremendous national attention, impacts our local economy and forces presidential candidates to take their case to all of Nebraska, rather than just flying over the edge and ignoring us,” he said.

Praised for ‘standing strong’

Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb praised McDonnell for “standing strong against enormous pressure from out-of-state interests to protect the voice of Nebraskans in our democracy.”

“Nebraska has a long and proud tradition of independence and our electoral system reflects that by ensuring that the outcomes of our elections truly represent the will of the people, without interference,” Kleeb said.

Kleeb also said the party would support leaders “who stand up for the people,” which some interpreted as a hint that the door could be left open for McDonnell to return or secure some form of party support if he runs in the future.

The Nebraska Republican Party had no comment yet.

McDonnell WTA Statement

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