Statistical model shows Warriors youngsters outplayed Klay last season Originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
Now that Klay Thompson is a Dallas Maverick, the Warriors’ roster will have to improve or replace his performance to make Golden State a contender next season.
However, a model suggests the Warriors’ young players should have no problem succeeding Klay, given their performance during the 2023-24 NBA season.
After all, Thompson underperformed three of the Warriors’ recent first-round picks — Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski — based on data from journalist Neil Paine’s estimated RAPTOR statistics.
Paine’s RAPTOR rating is intended to be an all-encompassing estimation, somewhat similar to baseball’s WAR. But instead of Wins Above Replacement, RAPTOR intends to quantify the number of points a player adds to or subtracts from his team per 100 possessions, compared to the average player in the league.
How did Thompson perform last season according to this model?
Well, not great. Thompson’s rating was a plus-0.2, which essentially makes him a league-average player in 2023-24. While his plus-1.4 offensive RAPTOR ranks behind only Steph Curry for the Warriors, Thompson posted a dismal minus-1.2 defensive rating to largely compensate.
For some context, Thompson’s highest RAPTOR rating of his career came all the way back in 2014-15, when he was plus-4.7 during the Warriors’ NBA title run that season. But since back-to-back injuries in 2019 and 2021, the now 34-year-old guard’s value has plummeted in the model’s eyes.
The RAPTOR rating favors the Warriors’ promising young players. Podziemski (plus-1.5), Kuminga (plus-1.1) and Moody (plus-0.4) all outscored the veteran Thompson last season.
Of course, none of these players can match the Splash Brothers’ ability to go all out offensively, but at this stage of their careers, the young players’ defensive value makes up for their shooting deficiencies.
The Warriors’ top performers based on the estimated RAPTOR rating? Maybe not who you’d expect. Gary Payton II and another rookie, Trayce Jackson-Davis, led the team with plus-2.6 and plus-2.5 points, respectively. Chris Paul (plus-1.9) and Curry (plus-1.8) — the latter also plagued by poor defense — were both not far behind.
Still, there are no numbers that can truly describe what Thompson has brought to the Warriors over the past decade, but this statistic doesn’t suggest the team will perform worse without him in the near future.
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