Dow Jones futures were little changed on Thursday, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures fell slightly and Bitcoin extended its losses. U.S. stock markets are closed for the Fourth of July holiday. The jobs report is due early Friday morning.
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Nasdaq, S&P 500 reach highs; ASML, Tencent Music, Agnico-Eagle Mines in the spotlight
The stock market rally saw the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record highs during the mid-day session on Wednesday. Tesla (TSLA) continued its strong rise and reached a key trend line. Nvidia (NVDA) had a solid session on a strong day for chips.
ASML (ASML), Entegris (ENTG), Monday.com (MNDY), Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), Southern copper (SCCO office), Tencent Music (TME) and Prospect (VST) all gave buy signals on Wednesday.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures were slightly above fair value. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%.
Bitcoin continued its downtrend and fell below spring lows of $57,000 on Wednesday evening, before limiting losses above that level.
U.S. stock and bond markets were closed Thursday for July 4. But other exchanges around the world were open.
Friday’s jobs report will certainly have an impact on Dow futures and U.S. Treasury yields.
Please note that trading Dow futures and other markets overnight does not necessarily result in actual trading during the next regular trading session.
Jobs Report
The Labor Department is scheduled to release its June jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to show an increase of 189,000, a slowdown from May’s 272,000 gain. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3.9% from a year earlier, down from 4.1% in May.
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Rally on the stock market
Technically, the stock market rally on Wednesday was mixed, but the S&P 500, Nasdaq and leading stocks showed a clear bullish tone.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost a fraction in stock trading Wednesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose slightly, 0.1%, but came off its highs after briefly reclaiming the 50-day line.
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) lost a fraction. The First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index ETF (QQEW) rose 0.15% to a record close.
The Nasdaq is now 7.6% above its 50-day line, stretching further. That increases the risk of a pullback, although that need not happen immediately.
US crude oil prices rose 1.3% to $83.88 a barrel.
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 9 basis points to 4.35%, a drop of 13 basis points in two sessions.
U.S. Treasury yields fell as the ISM services index showed a contraction in June, and as the ADP Employment Report disappointed with labor numbers and initial jobless claims rose.
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, released after the early market close, showed that policymakers saw risks becoming “better balanced.” But they want “more confidence” before cutting rates.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) rose 0.6%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rose slightly. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 2.4%. Nvidia stock and ASML are major SMH holdings.
Reflecting more speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rose 1.8% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) rose 1.2%. Tesla shares are the No. 1 holding in Ark Invest’s ETFs. Cathie Wood sold some Tesla shares on Tuesday and Wednesday.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose 1.8%. The Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) rose 0.85%. US Global Jets ETF (JETS) gained 1.5%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) rose 0.5%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 0.25% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) fell 0.7%.
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) rose 0.3%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) fell 0.2%.
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Nvidia stock
Nvidia shares jumped 4.6% to 128.28, bouncing resolutely above both the 21-day line and the 10-day line since June 20. An aggressive investor could have used Wednesday’s action to add a few more shares. But NVDA shares could use an extended pause.
Tesla stocks
Tesla shares rose 6.5% to 246.39 on Wednesday, extending weekly gains to 24.6% after rising 8.1% the previous week.
Shares have expanded dramatically from the 191.08 handle buy point. TSLA shares are on a long-term trend line that goes back to the all-time high from late 2021. Ideally, Tesla would like to pause for a while. Earnings are expected in two weeks.
Stocks in buy areas
ASML shares rose 2.2% to 1,071.20, breaking back above a buy point of 1,056.34, according to MarketSurge analysis. The chip equipment giant recently found support at its 21-day line. ASML earnings are expected on July 17.
Entegris shares rose 3.1% to 140.81, exceeding the 139.81 buy point.
Shares of Monday.com rose 2.65% to 243.31, surpassing the 239.54 entry and reclaiming the previous base buy point of 239.22.
Angico-Eagle shares rose 4% to 68.27, breaking above the 50-day line and a trend line. AEM shares have a buy point of 71.50 from a flat base.
Southern Copper shares rose 5.5% to 116.03, bouncing above the 50-day line. SCCO shares are in a consolidation pattern with an official buy point of 120.79.
Tencent Music shares rose 3.5% to 14.94, breaking a trend line within a flat base. The official buy point is 15.77. TME shares are bouncing off the 50-day line.
Vistra shares rose 4.1% to 91.31, back above its 50-day line and short-term highs. The energy company, an AI-adjacent company, may be starting to build the right side of a new base.
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What to do now
The stock market rally shows strength across major indices. Market breadth could be better, but there are plenty of stocks that have given buy signals across sectors.
That’s why it’s crucial that you use your screens consistently and cast a wide net.
The Nasdaq continues to expand, which is reason to be cautious about adding exposure, but the broader bullish trend is still intact.
Start paying attention to earnings data. Quarterly reports will start picking up in the next week or so.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay up to date on market developments and the most important stocks and sectors.
Nvidia, ASML and Agnico-Eagle shares are on the IBD Leaderboard, with Weatherford shares on the watch list. Nvidia and Monday.com are on the IBD 50.
ASML was IBD stock of the day on Wednesday.
Follow Ed Carson on Threads via @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter via @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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