Nearly five days before Hurricane Milton struck Florida, National Hurricane Center forecasters predicted its track within just 12 miles (19 kilometers) of where the storm later made landfall. Predictions for Hurricane Helene were also accurate: The National Weather Service warned long before that storm hit the coast that “record flooding” in North Carolina, some 400 miles offshore, would be “one of the most significant weather events” in the history of would be the state.
“The forecasts were quite accurate, and no one can say they were surprised by the landfall location and the intensity of these storms,” said John Morales, meteorologist and hurricane specialist for NBC 6 South Florida.
And yet, at a time when hurricane forecasts are at their most accurate, some meteorologists say they have never faced so much skepticism, hatred and conspiratorial opposition.
They are falsely accused, especially on social media, of sending the hurricanes to Florida or Appalachia. Some have reported threats of violence online, while others say they have experienced personal attacks.
“Over the past two months, the number of conspiracy theories has increased so much, especially on social media, that it is undermining my ability to do my job effectively,” said Matthew Cappucci, a meteorologist at MyRadar Weather and The Washington Post. “People will see a faulty signal on radar and think we’re zapping hurricanes. There are people who think we can send hurricanes into a red state.”
Cappucci said social media commentators have called him out for his Harvard education and that he should be fired. Cappucci added that he was recently interrupted at a bar in Louisiana by a man who saw his MyRadar shirt and insisted that Cappucci worked for Bill Gates.
“He spent the next 14 minutes harassing me about weather changes,” Cappucci said.
Bradley Panovich, chief meteorologist at WCNC in Charlotte, North Carolina, said the messages “have become more personal, meaner and more persistent.”
“It also takes time and effort in predicting the weather,” he added.
The wave of opposition and attacks has come as meteorologists also deal with the emotional toll of more severe and damaging hurricanes as climate change increases.
“Losing people in a weather disaster is like a doctor losing a patient on the operating table,” said Kim Klockow McClain, a senior social scientist who supports the National Weather Service. “Forecasters feel like they can save everyone. They took it personally.”
Hurricane forecasts have become more accurate
Hurricane forecasts have improved dramatically over the past fifty years.
Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at the nonprofit research group Climate Central, said advances in computing power and a better understanding of storm physics now allow the National Hurricane Center to issue forecast cones — likely paths — ahead of a tropical storm. storm has even developed.
“Our cones have become thinner,” Winkley said, meaning forecasters are more certain of a hurricane’s path.
The National Hurricane Center releases data every year on how its forecasts match reality, and the trend shows a decline in track errors since the 1970s. At the time, a storm forecast issued 36 hours ahead was likely off by about 230 miles, according to NOAA. In the 2020s to date, that error is about 57 miles.
Cappucci called Hurricane Milton’s center forecast “almost prescient” and one of the best in its history.
But as the predictions progress, so does the spread of misinformation online. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., suggested on X that scientists can control the weather. (Humans can’t control hurricanes.) “No matter how good your forecast is, it doesn’t matter if people don’t listen,” Cappucci said. “If people are directed to the wrong channel or an app, or Bubba’s website, or conspiracy theories on Twitter, it doesn’t matter.”
The picture is further complicated by evidence that climate change is causing many tropical storms to intensify faster than in the past, making predictions about hurricane intensity difficult.
“The forecast models have not fully taken into account the ocean warmth and the climate aspect,” Winkley said.
Hurricane Milton’s wind speeds increased by 90 miles per hour in about 24 hours — a level of rapid intensification that resulted in Morales, a professional meteorologist of four decades of experience, choking on live television.
“The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events are changing me. It makes me more alarmed than before,” Morales said. ‘Through political lenses’
James Spann, a meteorologist from Birmingham, Alabama, said on the WeatherBrains podcast last week that he had received more hateful messages in October than at any other time in his career.
“My sin was posting a link to a FEMA page on rumor control, and within five minutes I got a message from a guy saying, ‘Go, be yourself and retire now,’” Spann said.
Several meteorologists suggested that the timing of two intense storms in the run-up to the election may have confused some people.
“When disasters occur, we always see people asking questions in an effort to understand how and why something so terrible could happen,” Klockow McClain said. “These questions are reinforced by the background political environment. Everyone thinks about it. It is part of our consciousness. It makes sense that people will reason through a political lens.”
Politics did indeed play a role in a recent, well-documented case of harassment.
Chris Gloninger left as chief meteorologist at KCCI in Des Moines, Iowa, in June 2023 after death threats over his reporting on climate change.
A 65-year-old man pleaded guilty to harassing Gloninger and was fined $105, according to online court records. Police records show the man sent Gloninger an email saying he was “tired of your liberal conspiracy theory” and that Gloninger was a “worthless Biden puppet.”
Gloninger said he sees recent claims that meteorologists control the weather as a new form of aggressive climate denial on the right.
“When I shared my story, I think some said this was such a departure from what’s happening. Unfortunately, I don’t think it was,” Gloninger said.
‘It’s up to us to explain’
Klockow McClain said meteorologists may need new strategies to counter disinformation — perhaps by humanizing scientists more, or sending messages designed to “inoculate” against common forms of disinformation, such as weather monitoring.
“It is up to us to explain what cloud seeding is, what are its effects, how is it done and how often is it done?” Klokow McClain said.
Humans have no control over weather systems as large as hurricanes. However, there have been attempts to change the weather in a very limited way using cloud seeding technologies, dating back to the 1950s. The approach typically involves spraying silver iodide into clouds to draw water from the atmosphere and produce snow or rain. Today, cloud seeding programs are mainly used in Western states that want to boost water supplies – on a much smaller scale than a hurricane.
In a sense, however, human behavior is a significant influence on hurricanes, in the form of burning fossil fuels. Warmer oceans provide more fuel for tropical storms, and higher temperatures cause the atmosphere to retain more water, leading to heavier rainfall.
“We don’t have the ability to manipulate or change the weather in a matter of hours or days,” Winkley said. “I’m not sure why you can wrap your head around that, but you think humans can’t change the course of the climate over decades to get us to the place we are today.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
