A cool and mild start will give way to warm and humid temperatures as the week progresses, with temperatures hovering around 90 degrees by midweek.
According to the National Weather Service in Buffalo, a high pressure system will hover over the area Monday and Tuesday, bringing conditions for sunny skies, comfortable temperatures and low humidity. However, it will be followed by hot and humid weather, with daily highs approaching 90 degrees on Wednesday.
The warmer temperatures will cause instability, according to the weather forecast, with the chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday and Friday. The high temperature is expected to remain around 80 degrees until the end of the work week.
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The Independence Day forecast calls for partly sunny conditions and a high near 86 degrees, reducing the chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday and Friday, according to the Weather Service.
The AccuWeather forecast paints a less favorable picture, with humid conditions and a high of 84, but a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. The RealFeel temperature for the day, which takes into account humidity, cloud cover, wind and other factors, is 90 degrees.
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Looking forward
The latest 6-10-day and 8-14-day outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center favor above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation through mid-July.
The AccuWeather forecast calls for temperatures to be in the mid to low 80s through July 10, with temperatures peaking in the 90s this Wednesday during that time. The RealFeel temperature will be warmer, due in part to humidity, topping out at 91 degrees on Wednesday and into the 92 degrees on Thursday.
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Climate statistics for June
In June, average temperatures were higher than normal, with an average high of 26.5 degrees Celsius, or 1.6 degrees Celsius warmer, and an average low of 16.1 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Celsius warmer.
Total precipitation was only 0.03 inches above normal, at 3.4 inches.
All these figures remained well below these record figures:
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The highest average maximum temperature was 85.5 degrees in 1949.
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The warmest average low temperature was 63.6 degrees in 1919.
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The highest rainfall in June was 8 inches (20.6 centimeters) in 1922.
However, there were several days with record temperatures in June. The warmest minimum temperature was reached on June 18 (73 degrees) and June 19 (74 degrees) during the first heat wave of the year. The average temperature record was also reached on June 19 (83 degrees).
— Steve Howe covers weather, climate and lakes for the Democrat and Chronicle. He is an RIT graduate who returned to Rochester after working in the state and Utah. Share with him at showe@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Fourth of July Weather: Your 2024 holiday forecast in NY
