Geraint Thomas believes Tadej Pogacar “could see the race put to bed” in the opening week of this year’s Tour de France as the Slovenian bids to become the first man since Marco Pantani in 1998 to complete a Giro d’Italia-Tour double in the same season.
Such is the course for the first few days of this year’s Tour, which starts in Florence on Saturday, and more importantly, such is the uncertainty surrounding the form of Visma-Lease a Bike’s Jonas Vingegaard after a heavy crash in the spring. There has been speculation all week that Pogacar’s UAE Team Emirates may want to attack from the start rather than allow Vingegaard, who has beaten Pogacar to the yellow jersey the past two years, to build up his fitness.
Attacking from the starting gun was a tactic Pogacar used to devastating effect in last month’s Giro. The 25-year-old finished just behind Ineos Grenadiers’ Jhonatan Narváez on the opening stage into Turin, giving him a 10-second lead over his main rivals. He then gained a further 27 seconds by winning the second stage. By the end of the first week, the Slovenian had a two-and-a-half-minute lead.
With the first stage of the Tour on Saturday featuring an altitude difference of 3,600 meters and Sunday’s second stage including the 2 kilometer climb to the San Luca Basilica – where the one-day Italian classic Giro dell’Emilia ends – near the finish in Bologna, there may be a chance to gain a few seconds even before the race reaches the Galibier on stage five.
Thomas said he was sure UAE Team Emirates would have looked at it, especially since Visma-Lease a Bike looked much weaker on paper than this time last year, when the Dutch squad was on course to win all three Grand Tours. In addition to Vingegaard, Wout van Aert also suffered a heavy crash in the spring. Christophe Laporte, Dylan van Baarle, Steven Kruijswijk and Cian Uijtdebroeks also suffered setbacks. In the final blow, Vuelta a España winner Sepp Kuss was ruled out earlier this week after failing to recover from Covid. The team also lost Primoz Roglic to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe.
“I think so,” said Thomas Telegraph Sports when asked if UAE Team Emirates would like to finish the race early. “I think they could do that. I don’t know if the first stage is tough enough [to put time into the main contenders]. It’s clearly a tough phase. I’m not sure if it’s heavy enough to really expose [Vingegaard] over there. But I think it will be a difficult start.
“The day after, of course, there is that steep climb before Bologna, there can be small time differences. And then of course the Galibier, something could happen there. And then the ITT [individual time trial] at the end of the first week. I think it’s all just ‘the harder the better’ from the UAE point of view. There are certainly opportunities to save some time.”
Thomas added: “I don’t think Jonas will be too far off, to be honest. But hey, we’ll see. I think, you know, it’s not just Pog and the UAE. Like they’re clearly aggressive. But there is also Bora, how do they view that with Primoz Roglic? And Remko [Evenepoel]whether he will do it. Although it might bite him in the a— if he does.”
Pogacar hasn’t tried too hard to dampen the speculation. When Thomas’ co-host was on his Watts that occur podcast, Luke Rowe, told their guest Pogacar a few weeks ago that he “could hit and [Visma-Lease a Bike] to sleep,” he replied, “Yes, but now you have told everyone.”
The 2020 and 2021 winner even fired an ominous warning to his rivals earlier this week when he said he had “never felt so good on the bike”, adding that despite suffering a bout of Covid earlier this month had “taken a step forward” since the Giro. There may be an element of kidology at play. But Pogacar is a phenomenon who enjoys making big statements on a bike.
If he does, there will of course be some scepticism. Only seven men in history have achieved the Giro-Tour double. Fausto Coppi, Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, Stephen Roche, Miguel Induráin and Pantani in 1998. The Italian was expelled from the Giro the following year for drugs.
However, Chris Froome, who failed to complete the Giro-Tour double in 2018, thinks the situation is in Pogacar’s favor. Froome won his Giro with a lung-busting solo attack on stage 19 after suffering an embarrassing crash ahead of the opening day time trial. Pogacar, on the other hand, was able to conserve energy in pink, having already built such a commanding lead.
“I got into the Tour de France [in 2018] and I felt at the start that I just lacked that freshness, that edge that I would need,” Froome said during the recent Critérium du Dauphiné. “From being able to manage the workload to the preparation period in May.
“Tadej had a very different Giro compared to the Giro I had in 2018, where it seemed like he was riding very much within himself. Even though he took a lot of time from everyone else there.
“I really believe he has a good chance of winning the double this year. If anyone can do it, it’s him.”
Whether Pogacar decides to attack or not, others undoubtedly will. Britain’s Tom Pidcock said earlier this week that it would be a “dream” to take the yellow jersey on opening day. And the course seems tailor-made for the 24-year-old, who says he is mainly chasing stages this year rather than riding for the general classification, as he looks ahead to the Paris Olympics where he will win his mountain bike title try to defend and will win gold in the road race.
“A lot of teams probably love their chances [in the opening stages]”, Thomas thought. “Boys like it [Lidl-Trek’s Mads] Pedersen all the way to the climbers. So yeah, it’s going to be an interesting few days.”
Pidcock said he wouldn’t be surprised if Pogacar challenged the podium chasers. “I think the UAE will want to make a difference early in this race, knowing that Jonas Vingegaard is a bit of an unknown. I think they want to put their cards on the table early in case he comes good in the final week.”
Five riders who can challenge Pogacar
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a bike)
He has beaten Pogacar for the past two years, but the Danish rider’s team is extremely depleted and his own form is uncertain after a major crash earlier this year.
Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
Now 34, this could be Roglic’s last chance to win the Tour. The former ski jumper changed teams to do that. He won the warm-up race of the Critérium du Dauphiné earlier this month.
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step)
Evenepoel makes his Tour debut this year and will be interesting to watch. Not a pure classification rider like Pogacar or Vingegaard, but he won the Vuelta in 2022 and tends to go all out.
Carlos Rodríguez/Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers)
The British team has two leaders. Rodríguez, 23, finished fifth last year and is improving rapidly. Bernal, 27, won the race in 2019 but is still fighting back after a life-threatening crash in 2022. Geraint Thomas will provide support but may also try to stay in the general classification.
Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates)
What if Pogacar crashes? Slovenian “right-hand man” Adam Yates would inherit his crack support team, which is why the Briton is third favorite with the bookmakers.
What to expect from Brits during the Tour de France
Eleven British will roll out in Florence on Saturday, with some hoping for stage wins and high finishes in the general classification.
Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan)
Despite announcing his retirement from the sport in May last year, his crash and withdrawal from the 2023 Tour convinced him to make one more attempt at making history and surpassing Eddy Merckx with a 35th stage win in the race. “I’m ready,” he said, speaking ahead of the Tour. “But maybe the others are even more ready than me.”
Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers)
Thomas is the 2018 champion and finishes third in the Giro d’Italia. He will not be riding for himself, however, but instead will act as domestique-deluxe for the Ineos Grenadiers leading duo of Egan Bernal and Carlos Rodríguez. “I think I will have the opportunity to do a stage, but I think it can also benefit the guys who are riding in the GC [general classification] “also,” he said.
Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers)
Last year Pidcock was a co-leader, alongside Rodríguez, but he broke in the mountains on stage 14 – which his Spanish teammate won. Pidcock’s role this year will be that of a servant as he also aims for stage wins. He has identified the opening stage – and therefore the yellow jersey – as his first goal. “It’s kind of what I’ve been dreaming about for the past month when I’ve been training hard,” he said. “There are a lot of guys who already have the same dream, so it won’t be easy, but we’ll try.”
Simon Yates (Jayco-AlUla)
Last year fourth, 1 min 27 sec behind his brother’s third place, this year Simon is the only rider on this list who goes to the Tour as an absolute contender for his team’s general classification. “I have worn the leader’s jersey in the Giro and the Vuelta and finished on the podium both times, but not yet in the Tour de France. That’s a big goal of mine,” he said.
Adam Yates (UAE team Emirates)
Despite last year’s podium, Adam’s role this year again revolves around helping Tadej Pogacar defeat the beast Jonas Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike. He may also have a podium finish in his sights, especially if fatigue catches up with his leader, just weeks after winning the Giro. Discussing the team’s strategy for the race, Pogacar said: “Yates will be my right-hand man.”
Fred Wright (Bahrain victor)
The 25-year-old rider, who is in his fourth Tour de France, was recently selected ahead of Thomas to represent Team GB at the Paris Olympics.
Oscar Onley (DSM-Firmenich PostNL)
The Scot, who won a stage in this year’s Tour Down Under, goes into his first Tour as a useful card to play in the mountains.
Dan McLay (Arkea-B&B Hotels)
The 32-year-old, heading into his fourth Tour, will act as lead-out for sprinter Arnaud Démare as his team targets stage wins.
Jake Stewart (Israel-Premier Tech)
Stewart will be riding the Tour de France for the first time, meaning he will have competed in all three Grand Tours by the time the race begins.
Stephen Williams (Israel-Premier Tech)
Williams, the Welshman who won the Tour Down Under and the Flèche Wallonne this year, is an outsider who can do particularly well on the tougher climbs.
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