WASHINGTON (AP) — One of the biggest signs of how people will vote is how much education they have. College-educated voters are much more likely to support Democrats, while those without a degree tend to lean Republican.
So while The Associated Press looked for places to investigate this topic, we turned our attention to Center County, Pennsylvania. The area is home to Pennsylvania State University, making it a classic blue dot in a red region.
But the province is attracting more and more people with college degrees, and small towns in the area are moving from red to purple and from purple to blue. Nothing is certain in this tumultuous election year, but the changes could help Kamala Harris counter Donald Trump’s margins in more rural areas. Here’s what we found in Center County.
A traditional swing county runs in one direction
Center County has a population of 160,000 in central Pennsylvania, and it has been a traditional swing area over the years. But that has changed: Democratic presidential candidates have consistently won in recent elections, and Democrats have retained control of the county board of commissioners.
The shift is reflected in data on education. Ten years ago, 39.4% of residents had a university degree of four years or more. Last year this amounted to 47.6%. County leaders aim to diversify the economy beyond Penn State, focusing on new attractions such as an Iron Man triathlon and developments such as expanded health care facilities.
‘Boomeranging’ back to Center County
Mark Higgins, chairman of the Center County Board of Commissioners, said the area’s growth is fueled by “boomerangs.” That means people who grew up or went to school in the province are moving back to raise their families.
The cost of living is an important factor. People move from the bigger cities to State College because it’s more affordable, and other people move from State College to the surrounding cities because it’s even cheaper. The result is that the blue dot is expanding in the province.
“You’re seeing an expansion of the university community and economy,” said Ezra Nanes, the Democratic mayor of State College. “It affects all parts of the province.”
Big changes have come to small towns
Penn State is surrounded by a series of small towns that have long had a conservative reputation. However, that is slowly changing.
Voters in Bellefonte, which has a population of 6,000, supported Trump in 2016 but backed Joe Biden in 2020. Once a struggling town, it has seen a wave of investment and newcomers that have brought more liberal politics.
However, the change is not everywhere. Philipsburg, with a population of less than 3,000, has not yet experienced the same renaissance. The decline of coal mining has undermined jobs in the city, and voters there chose Trump over Biden in 2020. “It’s a cute town. It just needs help,” said Brittney Tekely, 31, who runs her own barbershop.
Campaigns chasing votes
Democrats think they can raise the score in Center County. Their plans include engaging the left-wing student population, which is huge but sometimes unresponsive during elections. There is also an aggressive interrogation operation in the area. “Centre County could get thousands more votes than in 2020 or 2016,” said Abbey Carr, executive director of the county’s Democratic Party.
Republicans are not writing off the campus population, and they have organized events aimed at galvanizing right-wing students. Kush Desai, the Trump campaign’s spokesman in Pennsylvania, said they are doing outreach at college football tailgates and focusing on winning votes from young men frustrated with the progressive culture. “A lot of people who are rubbing elbows are starting to get away and come to our side instead,” he said.
